What usually happens in November

The most consistent November strength has come from Tesla (+10.60%, up 69% of years), Nvidia (+9.79%, up 78% of years), Amazon (+6.72%, up 72% of years), ASML (+5.83%, up 68% of years). The most consistent weakness: Gasoline (RBOB) (-3.45%, up 28% of years), German 10-year Bund yield (-4 bp, up 30% of years).

For the S&P 500, November has averaged +1.01% with gains in 62% of years, and an average absolute move of 4.05%.

Stronger in November

Tesla+10.60% 69% up
Nvidia+9.79% 78% up
Amazon+6.72% 72% up
ASML+5.83% 68% up
Siemens+5.56% 83% up
Ibovespa+4.67% 61% up
Allianz+4.24% 76% up
Walmart+3.61% 70% up
Eli Lilly+3.09% 70% up
Microsoft+2.89% 63% up

Weaker in November

Gasoline (RBOB)-3.45% 28% up
German 10-year Bund yield-4 bp 30% up

Every market in November

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+2.69%	+3.00%	76%	34	strong
Russell 2000	+2.24%	+3.01%	69%	39	strong
Nasdaq Composite	+2.06%	+2.35%	71%	55	strong
S&P 500	+1.01%	+1.63%	62%	98	weak

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
DAX	+2.61%	+2.87%	66%	38	strong
IBEX 35	+2.09%	+1.73%	67%	33	strong
FTSE MIB	+1.88%	+1.20%	61%	28	moderate
Swiss Market Index	+1.82%	+1.51%	77%	35	strong
CAC 40	+1.54%	+1.40%	61%	36	moderate
Euro Stoxx 50	+1.31%	+0.11%	53%	19	no clear pattern
FTSE 100	+0.89%	+1.32%	57%	42	no clear pattern

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Ibovespa	+4.67%	+2.03%	61%	33	strong
BIST 100	+3.98%	+0.73%	52%	29	weak
KOSPI	+2.91%	+0.83%	59%	29	weak
Nikkei 225	+1.29%	+1.34%	59%	61	weak
Hang Seng	+1.21%	+0.32%	51%	39	no clear pattern

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Tesla	+10.60%	+4.34%	69%	16	strong
Nvidia	+9.79%	+7.77%	78%	27	strong
Amazon	+6.72%	+6.16%	72%	29	strong
Meta Platforms	+4.34%	+1.71%	64%	14	weak
Walmart	+3.61%	+5.61%	70%	54	strong
Eli Lilly	+3.09%	+2.98%	70%	54	strong
Apple	+2.91%	+3.24%	56%	45	weak
Microsoft	+2.89%	+3.77%	63%	40	moderate
Berkshire Hathaway	+2.72%	+2.95%	77%	30	strong
JPMorgan Chase	+2.00%	+1.86%	57%	46	no clear pattern
Exxon Mobil	+1.62%	+0.99%	59%	64	moderate
Alphabet	+1.08%	+1.76%	64%	22	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
ASML	+5.83%	+4.90%	68%	28	strong
Siemens	+5.56%	+3.26%	83%	29	strong
Allianz	+4.24%	+4.39%	76%	29	strong
Airbus	+2.94%	+3.26%	60%	25	weak
Novo Nordisk	+2.80%	+2.23%	76%	25	strong
SAP	+1.65%	+2.81%	64%	28	weak
LVMH	+1.56%	+0.73%	50%	26	no clear pattern
TotalEnergies	+1.43%	-0.03%	50%	26	no clear pattern
Nestlé	+0.41%	+0.84%	64%	36	no clear pattern
Shell	-0.09%	-0.85%	30%	30	weak

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
XRP	+47.59%	-11.28%	38%	8	no clear pattern
Bitcoin	+7.51%	+7.58%	58%	12	no clear pattern
Solana	+6.72%	+15.37%	67%	6	weak
Ether	+3.47%	-4.54%	50%	8	no clear pattern
BNB	-6.39%	-3.64%	50%	8	no clear pattern

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
European natural gas (TTF)	+2.73%	0.00%	26%	34	no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	+2.43%	+0.86%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	-2.12%	-0.79%	46%	26	no clear pattern
WTI crude oil	-2.66%	-2.81%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	-2.91%	-0.30%	47%	19	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	-3.45%	-2.98%	28%	25	strong

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Silver	+1.77%	-1.63%	42%	26	no clear pattern
Copper	+1.60%	+1.36%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Gold	+1.33%	+0.57%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Palladium	+1.03%	+1.65%	59%	27	no clear pattern
Platinum	+0.96%	+1.40%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Aluminium	+0.52%	-0.29%	47%	34	no clear pattern
Nickel	-0.50%	-2.02%	38%	34	no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Soybeans	+1.82%	+1.68%	65%	26	moderate
Corn	-0.96%	-1.09%	35%	26	weak
Wheat	-1.20%	-2.04%	38%	26	weak

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	+3.84%	+0.98%	58%	26	weak
Cocoa	+3.42%	+1.06%	54%	26	no clear pattern
Cotton	+1.52%	+1.01%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Sugar	+0.38%	-0.68%	46%	26	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Lean hogs	+1.52%	-0.83%	48%	25	no clear pattern
Live cattle	+0.32%	-0.02%	48%	25	no clear pattern

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	-4 bp	-1 bp	48%	50	no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	-4 bp	-3 bp	30%	70	strong
US 10-year Treasury yield	-7 bp	-7 bp	44%	64	weak

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
USD/TRY	+2.85%	+1.01%	76%	21	strong
USD/BRL	+2.31%	+2.47%	65%	20	strong
USD/JPY	+0.78%	+0.24%	57%	30	no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)	+0.21%	+0.24%	53%	55	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	+0.14%	+0.07%	55%	22	no clear pattern
EUR/USD	-0.23%	+0.03%	50%	22	no clear pattern

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

October · December

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.