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Question

What is the best month for Cocoa?

Short answer

Since 2000, November has been the strongest month for Cocoa, averaging +3.42% and rising in 54% of 26 years. October has been the weakest, at -2.80%.

We rate the November pattern as no clear pattern and the October pattern as moderate. April comes second at +3.02%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Cocoa, 2000 to 2026

+3.4%+1.7%-1.7%-3.4%Jan: average +1.91%, up in 50% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +2.25%, up in 59% of 27 yearsFebMar: average +0.65%, up in 59% of 27 yearsMarApr: average +3.02%, up in 67% of 27 yearsAprMay: average -1.40%, up in 48% of 27 yearsMayJun: average +2.15%, up in 59% of 27 yearsJunJul: average +0.92%, up in 59% of 27 yearsJulAug: average +2.52%, up in 56% of 27 yearsAugSep: average -1.44%, up in 52% of 27 yearsSepOct: average -2.80%, up in 35% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +3.42%, up in 54% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +2.59%, up in 58% of 26 yearsDec
Cocoa: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+3.42%+1.06%54%no clear pattern
2April+3.02%+3.76%67%strong
3December+2.59%+2.61%58%no clear pattern
4August+2.52%+1.52%56%no clear pattern
5February+2.25%+3.29%59%no clear pattern
6June+2.15%+1.27%59%no clear pattern
7January+1.91%-0.21%50%no clear pattern
8July+0.92%+1.40%59%no clear pattern
9March+0.65%+1.12%59%no clear pattern
10May-1.40%-1.87%48%no clear pattern
11September-1.44%+0.39%52%no clear pattern
12October-2.80%-2.83%35%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Feb 16Opens in 122 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +2.79%Median +2.22%Worst year -3.69%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

May 11 to May 26Opens in 216 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -2.92%Median -2.26%Worst year +6.74%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Oct 30 to Dec 14Opens in 23 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +6.93%Median +6.01%Worst year -26.38%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 77%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Ivory Coast and Ghana produce most of the world's cocoa; the main crop starts in October.
  • Weather, crop disease and farmgate price policy drive supply.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Cocoa. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.