Market SeasonalityFree alerts
Seasonality

Commodity seasons

Harvests, heating demand, the driving season and storage cycles repeat every year. Here is how each commodity has usually moved, month by month.

Season calendar

Average move by month. Outlined cells are strong patterns.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Energy
WTI2.03.52.62.33.02.11.6-0.7-1.0-1.8-2.70.3
Brent2.14.21.63.90.81.20.9-0.9-0.4-1.0-2.9-0.6
Nat gas-5.2-2.11.43.82.50.2-1.10.58.67.42.4-5.0
TTF gas1.9-2.60.5-1.9-1.41.02.84.42.52.82.71.9
Heating oil2.53.31.21.6-0.33.12.02.50.5-0.8-2.1-0.4
Gasoline (RBOB)3.34.4134.61.6-0.81.50.1-6.9-3.9-3.51.8
Metals
Gold3.01.20.21.30.3-0.90.92.50.40.11.31.4
Silver3.82.30.50.31.0-3.03.41.7-0.70.81.82.4
Copper1.92.91.42.1-0.1-0.61.6-1.00.2-0.21.61.0
Platinum3.42.4-1.71.3-0.3-1.60.20.9-0.60.11.02.4
Palladium3.41.9-0.2-0.1-2.7-1.53.2-1.5-0.50.71.04.8
Aluminium1.91.00.10.6-0.7-1.20.90.3-0.20.10.50.9
Nickel4.82.30.90.80.5-2.4-0.30.6-0.2-1.4-0.51.0
Grains and oilseeds
Wheat-1.10.6-0.1-0.52.8-1.84.0-0.32.60.5-1.22.8
Corn1.21.41.21.40.3-2.5-3.80.41.22.8-1.05.5
Soybeans0.43.40.12.20.12.7-3.3-1.9-2.82.01.82.1
Softs
Coffee (Arabica)1.70.5-0.51.5-1.3-0.51.41.30.5-1.13.81.6
Cocoa1.92.30.73.0-1.42.10.92.5-1.4-2.83.42.6
Sugar2.40.0-6.2-1.30.44.23.0-0.32.53.30.40.8
Cotton1.31.90.40.4-2.2-1.00.21.4-2.20.71.53.7
Livestock
Live cattle0.71.5-0.71.0-3.81.10.30.60.72.80.31.6
Lean hogs-0.26.0-0.88.73.60.7-0.2-143.9-5.61.55.1

Higher on averageLower on averageStrong patternNumbers are average monthly moves in percent. Hover or tap a cell for details.

October: windows open now

Commodities with a moderate or strong October pattern.

SeasonalityOct 7

Lean hogs: October has been one of its weakest months

-5.56%average October move
  • Up in 28% of 25 years
  • Median -6.30%
  • So far this month -1.02%

Since 2001, Lean hogs has moved -5.56% on average in October and finished the month higher in 28% of 25 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is -1.02% so far, in line with the usual direction.
SeasonalityOct 7

Live cattle: October has been its strongest month

+2.80%average October move
  • Up in 68% of 25 years
  • Median +2.22%
  • So far this month +1.17%

Since 2001, Live cattle has moved +2.80% on average in October and finished the month higher in 68% of 25 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is +1.17% so far, in line with the usual direction.
SeasonalityOct 7

Natural gas (Henry Hub): October has been one of its strongest months

+7.37%average October move
  • Up in 65% of 26 years
  • Median +4.17%
  • So far this month +2.91%

Since 2000, Natural gas (Henry Hub) has moved +7.37% on average in October and finished the month higher in 65% of 26 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is +2.91% so far, in line with the usual direction.
SeasonalityOct 7

Sugar: October has been one of its strongest months

+3.28%average October move
  • Up in 65% of 26 years
  • Median +2.23%
  • So far this month +18.09%

Since 2000, Sugar has moved +3.28% on average in October and finished the month higher in 65% of 26 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is +18.09% so far, in line with the usual direction.
SeasonalityOct 7

Cocoa: October has been its weakest month

-2.80%average October move
  • Up in 35% of 26 years
  • Median -2.83%
  • So far this month +6.20%

Since 2000, Cocoa has moved -2.80% on average in October and finished the month higher in 35% of 26 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is +6.20% so far, against the usual direction.
SeasonalityOct 7

Corn: October has been one of its strongest months

+2.77%average October move
  • Up in 62% of 26 years
  • Median +1.32%
  • So far this month +1.45%

Since 2000, Corn has moved +2.77% on average in October and finished the month higher in 62% of 26 years. The direction held in both halves of the history. This October it is +1.45% so far, in line with the usual direction.

Next: November

Windows that open next month.

SeasonalityOct 7

Gasoline (RBOB): next month, November, has been one of its weakest months

-3.45%average November move

Up in 28% of 25 years
SeasonalityOct 7

Soybeans: next month, November, has been a historically firm month

+1.82%average November move

Up in 65% of 26 years

By group

Energy

OPEC+ output decisions, US shale production and inventories reported every Wednesday by the EIA.

WTIBest Feb, weakest Nov-1.77%Oct, up 46%no clear patternBrentBest Feb, weakest Nov-1.01%Oct, up 53%no clear patternNat gasBest Sep, weakest Jan+7.37%Oct, up 65%strongTTF gasBest Aug, weakest Feb+2.82%Oct, up 62%weakmonthly dataHeating oilBest Feb, weakest Nov-0.78%Oct, up 42%no clear patternGasoline (RBOB)Best Mar, weakest Sep-3.94%Oct, up 48%no clear pattern

Metals

Real interest rates and the US dollar, plus central-bank buying, which has become a structural source of demand.

GoldBest Jan, weakest Jun+0.13%Oct, up 50%no clear patternSilverBest Jan, weakest Jun+0.85%Oct, up 62%weakCopperBest Feb, weakest Aug-0.21%Oct, up 46%no clear patternPlatinumBest Jan, weakest Mar+0.13%Oct, up 61%no clear patternPalladiumBest Dec, weakest May+0.65%Oct, up 56%no clear patternAluminiumBest Jan, weakest Jun+0.11%Oct, up 56%no clear patternmonthly dataNickelBest Jan, weakest Jun-1.38%Oct, up 47%no clear patternmonthly data

Grains and oilseeds

Northern hemisphere harvest pressure in summer; weather in the US Plains, the Black Sea, the EU and Australia.

WheatBest Jul, weakest Jun+0.48%Oct, up 62%no clear patternCornBest Dec, weakest Jul+2.77%Oct, up 62%moderateSoybeansBest Feb, weakest Jul+2.04%Oct, up 62%weak

Softs

Brazil's harvest from May to September and frost risk in the southern winter.

Coffee (Arabica)Best Nov, weakest May-1.10%Oct, up 42%no clear patternCocoaBest Nov, weakest Oct-2.80%Oct, up 35%moderateSugarBest Jun, weakest Mar+3.28%Oct, up 65%moderateCottonBest Dec, weakest May+0.67%Oct, up 65%no clear pattern

Livestock

The cattle cycle takes years to rebuild herds; summer grilling demand and feed costs matter.

Live cattleBest Oct, weakest May+2.80%Oct, up 68%strongLean hogsBest Apr, weakest Aug-5.56%Oct, up 28%strong

Futures prices include contract roll effects; European gas, aluminium and nickel use IMF monthly averages. Methodology

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.