How to read the numbers
Every figure on this site answers one question: what usually happened next? Here is how to read them without being fooled.
Average and median
The average adds every year up; one extreme year can pull it a long way. The median is the middle year. When they disagree, trust the median.
Hit rate and likely range
"Up in 65% of 26 years" is a count. Because 26 years is a small sample, we also show a likely range (a 95% interval). A range of 46% to 81% means the true rate could easily be close to a coin flip.
Pattern rating
Strong, moderate, weak or no clear pattern. It combines the hit rate, a t-statistic and whether the pattern pointed the same way in both halves of the history.
Seasonal windows
We test thousands of date ranges, so some look good by luck. We keep only windows that held in 75% of years and in both halves of the data, and show every year as a square so you can judge for yourself.
Event studies
Moves are measured from the close before the event. Day 1 is the event day, day 5 and day 20 are sessions later. Markets often price a decision in advance, so the surprise matters more than the decision itself.
Technical signals
For each signal (a 52-week high, an RSI extreme, a 50/200-day cross) we show what that market did over the next 20 sessions after every past case.
Correlation
Plus one means two markets move together, minus one that they move in opposite directions, zero that there is no link. We flag when today's value is unusual for the last five years.
What we do not do
No buy or sell calls, no price targets, no costs or slippage in the figures. History describes tendencies; it does not predict a given year.
Definitions and data sources in detail: methodology.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.