US 10-year Treasury yield: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, US 10-year Treasury yield has averaged -1 bp and risen in 52% of 64 years (1962 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 5.31% on October 5, 2026: +3 bp on the day, +113 bp this year, +2 bp so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1 bp | +2 bp | 53% | +1 bp | +80 bp | -57 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
| February | +4 bp | +2 bp | 55% | +2 bp | +159 bp | -95 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| March | +4 bp | +4 bp | 57% | -2 bp | +62 bp | -74 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| April | +7 bp | +2 bp | 57% | +11 bp | +98 bp | -188 bp | 65 | weak |
| May | -1 bp | +1 bp | 55% | -4 bp | +109 bp | -113 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| June | -2 bp | -3 bp | 46% | -2 bp | +73 bp | -70 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1 bp | 0 bp | 48% | -2 bp | +95 bp | -93 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| August | -4 bp | -4 bp | 48% | -3 bp | +79 bp | -87 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1 bp | +1 bp | 51% | +23 bp | +68 bp | -108 bp | 65 | no clear pattern |
| October | -1 bp | +2 bp | 52% | +16 bp | +128 bp | -121 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
| November | -7 bp | -7 bp | 44% | -8 bp | +53 bp | -150 bp | 64 | weak |
| December | 0 bp | 0 bp | 50% | +3 bp | +85 bp | -68 bp | 64 | no clear pattern |
What drives US 10-year Treasury yield
- Expected Fed policy over the next decade plus a term premium for inflation and fiscal risk.
- Treasury supply, auction results and foreign demand.
- Moves here reset the discount rate for stocks, mortgages and the dollar.
Sell in May for US 10-year Treasury yield
From 1963 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10 bp and the May to October half -9 bp. The winter half did better in 62% of 63 years. Compare all markets.
How US 10-year Treasury yield reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | -2 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | 41% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | 0 bp | +1 bp | +2 bp | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1 bp | +3 bp | +15 bp | 50% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +2 bp | -9 bp | +9 bp | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +3 bp | +3 bp | +6 bp | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | 0 bp | +3 bp | +4 bp | 53% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | 0 bp | +6 bp | +6 bp | 53% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -6 bp | -7 bp | -13 bp | 50% |
Year by year
Latest insights on US 10-year Treasury yield
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
Questions
What is the best month for US 10-year Treasury yield?
Since 1962, April has had the highest average move for US 10-year Treasury yield at +7 bp, rising in 57% of 65 years. March has the highest share of positive years (57%).
What is the worst month for US 10-year Treasury yield?
November has had the weakest average move at -7 bp, rising in 44% of 64 years.
How does US 10-year Treasury yield usually do in October?
US 10-year Treasury yield has averaged -1 bp in October (median +2 bp), rising in 52% of 64 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.