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Question

What is the best month for Walmart?

Short answer

Since 1973, November has been the strongest month for Walmart, averaging +3.67% and rising in 72% of 53 years. December has been the weakest, at -0.20%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the December pattern as no clear pattern. March comes second at +3.60%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Walmart, 1972 to 2026

+3.7%+1.8%-1.8%-3.7%Jan: average +2.31%, up in 57% of 54 yearsJanFeb: average +0.66%, up in 58% of 53 yearsFebMar: average +3.60%, up in 69% of 54 yearsMarApr: average +1.28%, up in 56% of 54 yearsAprMay: average +2.39%, up in 65% of 54 yearsMayJun: average +2.33%, up in 57% of 54 yearsJunJul: average +2.73%, up in 66% of 53 yearsJulAug: average +1.12%, up in 54% of 54 yearsAugSep: average +0.01%, up in 57% of 54 yearsSepOct: average +1.40%, up in 59% of 54 yearsOctNov: average +3.67%, up in 72% of 53 yearsNovDec: average -0.20%, up in 48% of 54 yearsDec
Walmart: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+3.67%+5.68%72%strong
2March+3.60%+3.83%69%strong
3July+2.73%+1.71%66%moderate
4May+2.39%+1.78%65%moderate
5June+2.33%+1.29%57%weak
6January+2.31%+1.63%57%no clear pattern
7October+1.40%+1.22%59%no clear pattern
8April+1.28%+2.23%56%no clear pattern
9August+1.12%+1.02%54%no clear pattern
10February+0.66%+0.54%58%no clear pattern
11September+0.01%+0.86%57%no clear pattern
12December-0.20%-0.41%48%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 4 to Apr 23Opens in 147 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +5.02%Median +5.38%Worst year -11.59%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Jun 26 to Jul 21Opens in 261 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +2.75%Median +2.72%Worst year -16.40%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Aug 31 to Nov 9Open now, 32 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +5.22%Median +4.12%Worst year -9.64%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Nov 19 to Nov 29Opens in 42 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +1.83%Median +1.55%Worst year -1.97%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • US consumer health, food inflation and the holiday season; fiscal year ends in January.
  • Tariffs on imported goods and wage costs.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Walmart. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.