Ether: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Ether has averaged +6.73% and risen in 63% of 8 years (2018 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 2,697.52 on October 6, 2026: -0.50% on the day, -9.08% this year, +0.52% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +14.70% | +0.05% | 56% | +14.70% | +78.23% | -27.00% | 9 | no clear pattern |
| February | +4.26% | +7.69% | 67% | +4.26% | +46.41% | -32.15% | 9 | weak |
| March | -3.37% | +7.11% | 67% | -3.37% | +35.47% | -53.64% | 9 | no clear pattern |
| April | +17.54% | +7.20% | 67% | +17.54% | +68.98% | -17.42% | 9 | weak |
| May | +9.60% | -0.15% | 44% | +9.60% | +65.33% | -28.86% | 9 | no clear pattern |
| June | -11.67% | -8.70% | 22% | -11.67% | +8.42% | -45.05% | 9 | weak |
| July | +16.62% | +11.50% | 56% | +16.62% | +57.55% | -24.78% | 9 | weak |
| August | +1.73% | -7.60% | 44% | +1.73% | +35.39% | -34.77% | 9 | no clear pattern |
| September | -5.50% | -5.56% | 44% | -5.50% | +8.79% | -17.72% | 9 | weak |
| October | +6.73% | +4.84% | 63% | +6.73% | +42.86% | -15.23% | 8 | weak |
| November | +3.47% | -4.54% | 50% | +3.47% | +59.04% | -42.66% | 8 | no clear pattern |
| December | +7.13% | -0.84% | 44% | +7.13% | +69.25% | -20.49% | 9 | no clear pattern |
What drives Ether
- Network activity, staking yields, ETF flows and the relative performance against bitcoin.
- Protocol upgrades and regulatory treatment of staking.
Sell in May for Ether
From 2019 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +90.36% and the May to October half +29.52%. The winter half did better in 57% of 7 years. Compare all markets.
How Ether reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 17 | +1.37% | +2.89% | +2.72% | 41% |
| Fed cuts | 11 | +1.72% | +1.39% | -5.34% | 36% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 3 | +5.71% | +4.96% | -7.45% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 12 | +0.07% | +0.76% | +0.08% | 50% |
| ECB cuts | 9 | -0.29% | -1.34% | -4.63% | 22% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Ether
Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
Questions
What is the best month for Ether?
Since 2017, April has had the highest average move for Ether at +17.54%, rising in 67% of 9 years. February has the highest share of positive years (67%).
What is the worst month for Ether?
June has had the weakest average move at -11.67%, rising in 22% of 9 years.
How does Ether usually do in October?
Ether has averaged +6.73% in October (median +4.84%), rising in 63% of 8 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.