Soybeans: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Soybeans has averaged +2.04% and risen in 62% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 1,303.00 on October 6, 2026: +1.74% on the day, +26.44% this year, +0.77% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.42% | +1.31% | 65% | +2.34% | +12.17% | -12.09% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +3.43% | +2.44% | 65% | +1.22% | +19.57% | -10.77% | 26 | strong |
| March | +0.15% | +0.30% | 54% | -0.01% | +8.86% | -21.34% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.23% | +1.46% | 58% | +0.02% | +12.39% | -4.86% | 26 | weak |
| May | +0.08% | -0.48% | 50% | -0.95% | +10.67% | -21.28% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | +2.67% | +2.75% | 62% | -0.32% | +19.81% | -15.71% | 26 | moderate |
| July | -3.30% | -2.50% | 38% | -1.53% | +13.77% | -32.87% | 26 | moderate |
| August | -1.85% | -4.31% | 35% | -1.85% | +11.74% | -12.65% | 26 | weak |
| September | -2.79% | -2.34% | 38% | +0.49% | +14.20% | -21.55% | 26 | weak |
| October | +2.04% | +1.06% | 62% | +1.44% | +17.28% | -11.46% | 26 | weak |
| November | +1.82% | +1.68% | 65% | +2.86% | +10.60% | -7.00% | 26 | moderate |
| December | +2.08% | +0.01% | 50% | +1.22% | +12.56% | -9.43% | 26 | weak |
What drives Soybeans
- US summer growing weather, then the shift to the South American crop from January.
- Chinese import demand and trade policy are the largest swing factors.
Sell in May for Soybeans
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.50% and the May to October half -3.23%. The winter half did better in 60% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Soybeans
Questions
What is the best month for Soybeans?
Since 2000, February has had the highest average move for Soybeans at +3.43%, rising in 65% of 26 years. January has the highest share of positive years (65%).
What is the worst month for Soybeans?
July has had the weakest average move at -3.30%, rising in 38% of 26 years.
How does Soybeans usually do in October?
Soybeans has averaged +2.04% in October (median +1.06%), rising in 62% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.