Wheat: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Wheat has averaged +0.48% and risen in 62% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 704.25 on October 6, 2026: +1.73% on the day, +38.91% this year, +4.22% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.05% | -0.22% | 50% | +1.14% | +6.11% | -14.75% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.60% | -1.66% | 42% | +0.58% | +21.90% | -12.39% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | -0.13% | -0.26% | 46% | +0.63% | +16.40% | -13.42% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | -0.46% | -1.01% | 46% | +1.09% | +20.15% | -15.26% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| May | +2.75% | +1.92% | 54% | +3.11% | +21.55% | -12.03% | 26 | weak |
| June | -1.78% | -5.17% | 38% | -2.35% | +28.88% | -25.25% | 26 | weak |
| July | +3.99% | +3.98% | 62% | +1.16% | +42.33% | -18.79% | 26 | weak |
| August | -0.29% | -0.57% | 44% | -1.98% | +21.75% | -13.93% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | +2.64% | +3.30% | 63% | +3.16% | +22.43% | -18.25% | 27 | weak |
| October | +0.48% | +2.59% | 62% | +0.92% | +11.46% | -21.14% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | -1.20% | -2.04% | 38% | -2.04% | +14.82% | -12.55% | 26 | weak |
| December | +2.84% | +2.42% | 65% | +3.31% | +22.15% | -12.87% | 26 | moderate |
What drives Wheat
- Northern hemisphere harvest pressure in summer; weather in the US Plains, the Black Sea, the EU and Australia.
- Export policy in Russia and Ukraine and Black Sea shipping risk.
- USDA WASDE reports each month reset supply and demand estimates.
Sell in May for Wheat
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged -0.55% and the May to October half +7.49%. The winter half did better in 48% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Wheat
Questions
What is the best month for Wheat?
Since 2000, July has had the highest average move for Wheat at +3.99%, rising in 62% of 26 years. December has the highest share of positive years (65%).
What is the worst month for Wheat?
June has had the weakest average move at -1.78%, rising in 38% of 26 years.
How does Wheat usually do in October?
Wheat has averaged +0.48% in October (median +2.59%), rising in 62% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.