Coffee (Arabica): seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Coffee (Arabica) has averaged -1.10% and risen in 42% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 304.45 on October 6, 2026: +4.07% on the day, -12.70% this year, +4.73% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.68% | +1.67% | 58% | +1.38% | +18.17% | -20.86% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.50% | -0.66% | 41% | -0.68% | +43.61% | -15.53% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| March | -0.54% | -1.73% | 37% | -1.77% | +27.82% | -22.60% | 27 | weak |
| April | +1.48% | -0.65% | 48% | +3.05% | +16.84% | -12.46% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| May | -1.29% | -2.41% | 37% | -0.70% | +27.40% | -17.20% | 27 | weak |
| June | -0.50% | -0.80% | 48% | -0.76% | +22.31% | -14.63% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.43% | +0.65% | 56% | +3.29% | +18.89% | -9.72% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| August | +1.34% | -0.21% | 48% | +4.09% | +34.16% | -13.82% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | +0.46% | +1.43% | 59% | -2.56% | +18.83% | -20.82% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | -1.10% | -1.58% | 42% | +0.63% | +21.01% | -19.79% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | +3.84% | +0.98% | 58% | +7.58% | +30.81% | -10.14% | 26 | weak |
| December | +1.61% | -0.16% | 46% | -1.57% | +19.68% | -15.56% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Coffee (Arabica)
- Brazil's harvest from May to September and frost risk in the southern winter.
- Vietnam's robusta harvest and certified stock levels.
Sell in May for Coffee (Arabica)
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +11.68% and the May to October half +0.93%. The winter half did better in 60% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Coffee (Arabica)
Questions
What is the best month for Coffee (Arabica)?
Since 2000, November has had the highest average move for Coffee (Arabica) at +3.84%, rising in 58% of 26 years. September has the highest share of positive years (59%).
What is the worst month for Coffee (Arabica)?
May has had the weakest average move at -1.29%, rising in 37% of 27 years.
How does Coffee (Arabica) usually do in October?
Coffee (Arabica) has averaged -1.10% in October (median -1.58%), rising in 42% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.