Nikkei 225: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Nikkei 225 has averaged +0.40% and risen in 52% of 61 years (1965 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 70,683.98 on October 6, 2026: +1.05% on the day, +40.41% this year, +5.89% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.35% | +1.46% | 66% | +1.58% | +16.14% | -11.21% | 61 | moderate |
| February | +0.76% | +0.63% | 56% | +0.56% | +13.38% | -8.89% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.08% | +2.00% | 58% | -2.18% | +16.27% | -13.33% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.36% | +1.55% | 63% | +2.85% | +16.10% | -15.77% | 62 | moderate |
| May | +0.64% | +0.18% | 53% | +2.83% | +14.09% | -11.65% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.66% | +1.27% | 61% | +2.66% | +8.80% | -13.06% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| July | -0.07% | -0.06% | 48% | -0.87% | +14.88% | -9.67% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| August | -0.35% | -0.07% | 50% | +1.10% | +14.43% | -16.30% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.34% | -0.08% | 48% | +1.32% | +9.35% | -19.23% | 62 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.40% | +0.24% | 52% | +3.05% | +20.07% | -23.83% | 61 | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.29% | +1.34% | 59% | +2.68% | +15.04% | -16.73% | 61 | weak |
| December | +1.49% | +1.76% | 69% | +0.08% | +12.85% | -10.45% | 61 | strong |
What drives Nikkei 225
- Japan's price-weighted benchmark, heavy in exporters, so a weaker yen tends to lift it.
- Bank of Japan policy shifts and corporate governance reforms that lifted buybacks and dividends.
Sell in May for Nikkei 225
From 1966 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +7.73% and the May to October half +0.75%. The winter half did better in 67% of 60 years. Compare all markets.
How Nikkei 225 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff escalation headlines | 7 | -0.91% | -3.53% | -0.15% | 57% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Nikkei 225
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Questions
What is the best month for Nikkei 225?
Since 1965, December has had the highest average move for Nikkei 225 at +1.49%, rising in 69% of 61 years. December has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Nikkei 225?
August has had the weakest average move at -0.35%, rising in 50% of 62 years.
How does Nikkei 225 usually do in October?
Nikkei 225 has averaged +0.40% in October (median +0.24%), rising in 52% of 61 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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