Sugar: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Sugar has averaged +3.28% and risen in 65% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 20.82 on October 6, 2026: +0.43% on the day, +38.71% this year, +18.09% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New 52-week high | Oct 6 | 42 | +2.14% | 50% |
| RSI above 70 | Oct 6 | 58 | +0.17% | 43% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.36% | +2.09% | 65% | +2.68% | +22.75% | -13.78% | 26 | weak |
| February | +0.01% | +0.11% | 50% | +0.09% | +15.45% | -19.30% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | -6.19% | -3.81% | 31% | -5.29% | +8.53% | -31.25% | 26 | strong |
| April | -1.31% | -4.30% | 30% | -0.29% | +22.58% | -14.33% | 27 | weak |
| May | +0.44% | -0.86% | 44% | -1.08% | +46.32% | -10.00% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| June | +4.21% | +2.13% | 67% | -1.12% | +27.06% | -10.59% | 27 | strong |
| July | +3.03% | +3.81% | 63% | +0.50% | +22.35% | -17.31% | 27 | weak |
| August | -0.27% | +0.12% | 52% | +2.91% | +31.06% | -20.86% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | +2.53% | -0.05% | 48% | +2.46% | +28.10% | -15.30% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | +3.28% | +2.23% | 65% | +3.35% | +26.58% | -10.37% | 26 | moderate |
| November | +0.38% | -0.68% | 46% | -0.38% | +13.95% | -8.16% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.82% | +0.70% | 54% | -2.42% | +19.04% | -20.97% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Sugar
- Brazil's centre-south crush from April to November and how mills split cane between sugar and ethanol.
- Monsoon rains in India and Thai output.
Sell in May for Sugar
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged -4.04% and the May to October half +11.31%. The winter half did better in 28% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Sugar
Questions
What is the best month for Sugar?
Since 2000, June has had the highest average move for Sugar at +4.21%, rising in 67% of 27 years. June has the highest share of positive years (67%).
What is the worst month for Sugar?
March has had the weakest average move at -6.19%, rising in 31% of 26 years.
How does Sugar usually do in October?
Sugar has averaged +3.28% in October (median +2.23%), rising in 65% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.