Nvidia: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Nvidia has averaged +5.54% and risen in 59% of 27 years (1999 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 239.24 on October 6, 2026: +0.14% on the day, +28.58% this year, +4.76% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New 52-week high | Oct 6 | 100 | +4.81% | 60% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.38% | -1.49% | 41% | +7.00% | +57.56% | -27.72% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| February | +7.42% | +4.49% | 68% | +6.26% | +72.68% | -22.41% | 28 | strong |
| March | +4.73% | +1.50% | 54% | +4.54% | +45.28% | -18.53% | 28 | weak |
| April | +0.40% | +1.43% | 57% | -0.46% | +28.31% | -32.03% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| May | +10.91% | +5.71% | 75% | +14.91% | +82.62% | -25.07% | 28 | strong |
| June | -1.07% | -0.63% | 50% | +6.31% | +23.16% | -48.65% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| July | -1.43% | +0.80% | 54% | +6.57% | +21.46% | -38.89% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| August | +7.78% | +6.62% | 75% | +5.79% | +39.75% | -19.20% | 28 | strong |
| September | -1.65% | +1.70% | 61% | -1.57% | +25.19% | -35.14% | 28 | no clear pattern |
| October | +5.54% | +5.91% | 59% | +4.89% | +56.02% | -24.98% | 27 | weak |
| November | +9.79% | +7.77% | 78% | +7.88% | +56.50% | -34.83% | 27 | strong |
| December | +3.32% | +2.69% | 63% | -1.53% | +43.03% | -32.81% | 27 | no clear pattern |
What drives Nvidia
- Data-centre GPU demand from cloud providers and AI labs, plus export rules for China.
- Reports roughly a month after the other mega caps, so its results often reset the AI trade.
Sell in May for Nvidia
From 2000 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +34.95% and the May to October half +21.05%. The winter half did better in 54% of 26 years. Compare all markets.
How Nvidia reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Nvidia moved +2.51% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 58% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 6.18%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +2.36%. The largest was +25.74% on November 10, 2016.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 26, 2026 | +7.01% | +6.31% | +5.53% |
| May 20, 2026 | -0.50% | -1.75% | -4.39% |
| February 25, 2026 | -4.13% | -4.40% | -7.34% |
| November 19, 2025 | -0.40% | +0.79% | -3.98% |
| August 27, 2025 | -0.88% | -1.44% | -2.24% |
| May 28, 2025 | +2.72% | +2.88% | +14.41% |
| February 26, 2025 | -5.12% | -3.55% | -10.16% |
| November 20, 2024 | -0.23% | -0.77% | -11.10% |
| August 28, 2024 | -8.35% | -7.75% | -3.31% |
| May 22, 2024 | +8.82% | +9.83% | +32.70% |
| February 21, 2024 | +13.08% | +10.84% | +30.13% |
| November 21, 2023 | -3.36% | -3.56% | -4.55% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Nvidia
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Questions
What is the best month for Nvidia?
Since 1999, May has had the highest average move for Nvidia at +10.91%, rising in 75% of 28 years. November has the highest share of positive years (78%).
What is the worst month for Nvidia?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.65%, rising in 61% of 28 years.
How does Nvidia usually do in October?
Nvidia has averaged +5.54% in October (median +5.91%), rising in 59% of 27 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
Alerts for Nvidia
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.