Events that move markets
Two kinds of pages live here: event studies that measure how markets reacted to every past event of a type, and topic hubs that collect our daily insights.
Event studies
Fed rate decisions
91 rate changes since 1994, split into hikes, cuts and first moves of a cycle.
ECB rate decisions
61 deposit-rate changes since 1999.
Tariff headlines
9 dated tariff posts, speeches and orders since 2018.
Earnings reactions
Two-day moves around 693 results releases for 11 US companies, from SEC filings.
Oil supply shocks
OPEC+ cuts and disruptions since 2014 and how oil, energy stocks and the wider market reacted.
Insight hubs
Central banks and rates
Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions, speeches and market pricing for the next move.
Economic data
Jobs, inflation, growth and sentiment releases, and how markets usually react.
Earnings and balance sheets
Quarterly results, guidance, deals and balance-sheet news for the companies we follow and their peers.
Political posts and headlines
Posts, speeches, elections and policy headlines that move markets, starting with tariffs.
Supply shocks
Production cuts, disruptions, inventories and harvests across energy, metals and agriculture.
Seasonal windows
Seasonal windows that open this month and how consistent they have been.
Crypto regulation and flows
ETF flows, regulation, custody rules and on-chain events for bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Big market moves
Records, sharp moves and cross-market signals worth explaining.
Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.