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Question

What is the best month for Berkshire Hathaway?

Short answer

Since 1996, November has been the strongest month for Berkshire Hathaway, averaging +2.72% and rising in 77% of 30 years. May has been the weakest, at -0.40%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the May pattern as no clear pattern. March comes second at +2.13%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Berkshire Hathaway, 1996 to 2026

+2.7%+1.4%-1.4%-2.7%Jan: average +0.40%, up in 53% of 30 yearsJanFeb: average +1.39%, up in 67% of 30 yearsFebMar: average +2.13%, up in 57% of 30 yearsMarApr: average +1.42%, up in 57% of 30 yearsAprMay: average -0.40%, up in 43% of 30 yearsMayJun: average -0.22%, up in 39% of 31 yearsJunJul: average +0.99%, up in 52% of 31 yearsJulAug: average +1.29%, up in 63% of 30 yearsAugSep: average +0.42%, up in 48% of 31 yearsSepOct: average +1.55%, up in 57% of 30 yearsOctNov: average +2.72%, up in 77% of 30 yearsNovDec: average +0.73%, up in 63% of 30 yearsDec
Berkshire Hathaway: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+2.72%+2.95%77%strong
2March+2.13%+1.64%57%weak
3October+1.55%+1.21%57%no clear pattern
4April+1.42%+1.15%57%weak
5February+1.39%+2.80%67%moderate
6August+1.29%+2.12%63%weak
7July+0.99%+0.06%52%no clear pattern
8December+0.73%+0.90%63%no clear pattern
9September+0.42%-0.05%48%no clear pattern
10January+0.40%+0.35%53%no clear pattern
11June-0.22%-0.94%39%no clear pattern
12May-0.40%-0.26%43%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 31 to May 1Opens in 115 days
79%higher in 29 years
Average +5.26%Median +3.13%Worst year -16.52%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1997 to 2010: 79%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Jul 4 to Aug 18Opens in 269 days
76%higher in 29 years
Average +3.10%Median +2.89%Worst year -11.19%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 88%. 1997 to 2010: 71%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Sep 30 to Nov 29Open now, 52 days left
86%higher in 29 years
Average +4.10%Median +3.24%Worst year -21.51%

Likely range of the hit rate 69% to 94%. 1997 to 2010: 71%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Why it might happen

  • Insurance float, a large equity portfolio and wholly owned businesses across railways, energy and retail.
  • Large cash holdings make its earnings sensitive to short-term interest rates.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Berkshire Hathaway. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.