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Question

What is the best month for IBEX 35?

Short answer

Since 1993, November has been the strongest month for IBEX 35, averaging +2.09% and rising in 67% of 33 years. June has been the weakest, at -0.58%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the June pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +1.98%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

IBEX 35, 1993 to 2026

+2.1%+1.0%-1.0%-2.1%Jan: average +0.96%, up in 58% of 33 yearsJanFeb: average +0.95%, up in 55% of 33 yearsFebMar: average -0.36%, up in 42% of 33 yearsMarApr: average +1.98%, up in 73% of 33 yearsAprMay: average -0.21%, up in 52% of 33 yearsMayJun: average -0.58%, up in 48% of 33 yearsJunJul: average +0.49%, up in 55% of 33 yearsJulAug: average -0.34%, up in 50% of 34 yearsAugSep: average -0.42%, up in 50% of 34 yearsSepOct: average +1.76%, up in 67% of 33 yearsOctNov: average +2.09%, up in 67% of 33 yearsNovDec: average +1.44%, up in 67% of 33 yearsDec
IBEX 35: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+2.09%+1.73%67%strong
2April+1.98%+2.02%73%strong
3October+1.76%+2.27%67%strong
4December+1.44%+1.98%67%strong
5January+0.96%+1.20%58%no clear pattern
6February+0.95%+0.87%55%no clear pattern
7July+0.49%+0.55%55%no clear pattern
8May-0.21%+0.09%52%no clear pattern
9August-0.34%-0.21%50%no clear pattern
10March-0.36%-1.41%42%no clear pattern
11September-0.42%+0.25%50%no clear pattern
12June-0.58%-0.23%48%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 22 to Apr 28Opens in 137 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +2.29%Median +2.38%Worst year -31.91%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Oct 2 to Dec 11Open now, 64 days left
77%higher in 30 years
Average +4.86%Median +3.50%Worst year -18.15%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • Spain's benchmark, heavy in banks and utilities, so it tracks ECB rate expectations closely.
  • Latin American exposure through Spanish banks and telecoms adds an emerging-market element.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: IBEX 35. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.