CAC 40: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, CAC 40 has averaged +1.75% and risen in 72% of 36 years (1990 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 7,865.07 on October 6, 2026: +0.40% on the day, -3.49% this year, -1.25% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.01% | +1.88% | 58% | +1.70% | +9.40% | -13.26% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.25% | +2.17% | 58% | +1.03% | +11.93% | -10.52% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.49% | +1.27% | 64% | -1.48% | +13.25% | -17.21% | 36 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.13% | +2.83% | 70% | +2.04% | +12.80% | -6.16% | 37 | strong |
| May | -0.51% | +0.10% | 54% | -0.64% | +5.34% | -8.11% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| June | -1.08% | -1.11% | 43% | -0.11% | +10.62% | -11.56% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.88% | +1.26% | 59% | +1.47% | +9.67% | -12.38% | 37 | no clear pattern |
| August | -1.27% | -1.18% | 35% | -0.74% | +6.63% | -13.99% | 37 | moderate |
| September | -1.91% | +0.05% | 51% | -0.56% | +8.58% | -17.49% | 37 | weak |
| October | +1.75% | +1.99% | 72% | +0.30% | +13.41% | -13.52% | 36 | strong |
| November | +1.54% | +1.40% | 61% | +3.11% | +20.12% | -7.34% | 36 | moderate |
| December | +1.32% | +1.63% | 67% | +0.95% | +11.55% | -7.90% | 36 | strong |
What drives CAC 40
- France's large caps, dominated by luxury, energy, aerospace and banks.
- Luxury names make it unusually sensitive to Chinese and US consumer spending.
- French fiscal and political headlines move bank stocks and the spread over German bonds.
Sell in May for CAC 40
From 1991 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.23% and the May to October half -1.78%. The winter half did better in 74% of 35 years. Compare all markets.
How CAC 40 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.52% | +0.11% | +0.46% | 57% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.50% | -0.14% | +0.83% | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1.37% | +0.90% | -2.57% | 17% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | -0.23% | -1.51% | +2.10% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +1.05% | +0.12% | +2.09% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.08% | -0.18% | +0.87% | 70% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.38% | -1.73% | -0.69% | 47% |
Year by year
Latest insights on CAC 40
Questions
What is the best month for CAC 40?
Since 1990, April has had the highest average move for CAC 40 at +2.13%, rising in 70% of 37 years. October has the highest share of positive years (72%).
What is the worst month for CAC 40?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.91%, rising in 51% of 37 years.
How does CAC 40 usually do in October?
CAC 40 has averaged +1.75% in October (median +1.99%), rising in 72% of 36 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.