Market SeasonalityFree alerts
Question

What is the best month for Eli Lilly?

Short answer

Since 1972, November has been the strongest month for Eli Lilly, averaging +3.09% and rising in 70% of 54 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.49%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. December comes second at +2.59%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Eli Lilly, 1972 to 2026

+3.1%+1.5%-1.5%-3.1%Jan: average +0.77%, up in 50% of 54 yearsJanFeb: average +0.84%, up in 54% of 54 yearsFebMar: average +1.05%, up in 61% of 54 yearsMarApr: average +1.74%, up in 58% of 52 yearsAprMay: average +2.21%, up in 59% of 54 yearsMayJun: average +2.45%, up in 65% of 54 yearsJunJul: average -0.24%, up in 54% of 54 yearsJulAug: average +0.70%, up in 49% of 55 yearsAugSep: average -0.49%, up in 45% of 55 yearsSepOct: average +2.11%, up in 60% of 53 yearsOctNov: average +3.09%, up in 70% of 54 yearsNovDec: average +2.59%, up in 56% of 54 yearsDec
Eli Lilly: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+3.09%+2.98%70%strong
2December+2.59%+1.05%56%moderate
3June+2.45%+3.11%65%strong
4May+2.21%+0.64%59%moderate
5October+2.11%+2.28%60%weak
6April+1.74%+1.06%58%weak
7March+1.05%+1.31%61%weak
8February+0.84%+0.74%54%no clear pattern
9January+0.77%-0.36%50%no clear pattern
10August+0.70%-0.02%49%no clear pattern
11July-0.24%+0.58%54%no clear pattern
12September-0.49%-0.73%45%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Apr 27Opens in 121 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +3.53%Median +3.65%Worst year -12.06%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 60%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Aug 11 to Oct 10Open now, 2 days left
77%higher in 30 years
Average +4.73%Median +4.53%Worst year -30.86%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Nov 1 to Dec 31Opens in 24 days
90%higher in 30 years
Average +6.88%Median +5.05%Worst year -6.58%

Likely range of the hit rate 74% to 97%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Why it might happen

  • Obesity and diabetes drug sales, manufacturing capacity and pricing policy.
  • Clinical trial readouts and US drug-pricing headlines.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Eli Lilly. How to read these numbers: guide.

Alerts for Eli Lilly

Pick your markets. We email when something relevant moves. Free during launch.

Free alerts

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.