Tesla: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Tesla has averaged +2.48% and risen in 38% of 16 years (2010 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 380.68 on October 6, 2026: +0.51% on the day, -15.35% this year, +7.29% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +5.45% | +0.99% | 56% | +9.24% | +55.52% | -24.63% | 16 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.97% | -0.45% | 44% | -2.66% | +34.95% | -27.59% | 16 | no clear pattern |
| March | -1.23% | -4.14% | 44% | -5.37% | +23.80% | -22.42% | 16 | no clear pattern |
| April | +5.94% | +4.52% | 63% | +3.98% | +49.21% | -20.80% | 16 | weak |
| May | +6.64% | +3.37% | 50% | +2.33% | +81.07% | -22.43% | 16 | no clear pattern |
| June | +8.24% | +7.84% | 69% | +10.17% | +29.32% | -11.19% | 16 | strong |
| July | +2.17% | -0.79% | 47% | +4.10% | +32.50% | -26.01% | 17 | no clear pattern |
| August | +6.70% | +1.18% | 53% | +9.38% | +74.15% | -12.18% | 17 | no clear pattern |
| September | +1.96% | -1.41% | 41% | +2.69% | +33.20% | -13.91% | 17 | no clear pattern |
| October | +2.48% | -2.95% | 38% | +5.06% | +43.65% | -19.73% | 16 | no clear pattern |
| November | +10.60% | +4.34% | 69% | +8.41% | +61.77% | -20.42% | 16 | strong |
| December | +1.03% | +2.15% | 63% | +4.03% | +26.79% | -36.73% | 16 | no clear pattern |
What drives Tesla
- Quarterly delivery numbers, published a few days after each quarter ends, often move the stock before earnings.
- EV pricing, subsidies and tariffs, plus expectations for autonomy and robotics.
Sell in May for Tesla
From 2011 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +24.99% and the May to October half +35.58%. The winter half did better in 53% of 15 years. Compare all markets.
How Tesla reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -3.07% | -5.24% | -7.03% | 25% |
How Tesla reacts to its earnings
Across 63 results announcements since 2010, Tesla moved +0.03% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 52% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 7.72%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +0.15%. The largest was +25.02% on May 8, 2013.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 22, 2026 | -15.63% | -14.29% | -7.34% |
| April 22, 2026 | -3.29% | -3.92% | +7.98% |
| January 28, 2026 | -3.33% | -3.19% | -5.18% |
| October 22, 2025 | +1.44% | +1.39% | -8.72% |
| July 23, 2025 | -8.07% | -8.92% | -2.47% |
| April 22, 2025 | +10.22% | +6.00% | +51.13% |
| January 29, 2025 | +0.55% | +0.49% | -29.17% |
| October 23, 2024 | +19.50% | +20.21% | +56.92% |
| July 23, 2024 | -14.12% | -11.65% | -12.09% |
| April 23, 2024 | +14.14% | +12.92% | +31.36% |
| January 24, 2024 | -12.68% | -13.29% | -5.61% |
| October 18, 2023 | -13.63% | -11.45% | -4.71% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Tesla
Questions
What is the best month for Tesla?
Since 2010, November has had the highest average move for Tesla at +10.60%, rising in 69% of 16 years. June has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Tesla?
March has had the weakest average move at -1.23%, rising in 44% of 16 years.
How does Tesla usually do in October?
Tesla has averaged +2.48% in October (median -2.95%), rising in 38% of 16 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.