Ahead or behind the season
If a market usually gains 12% from September to November and is up 5% so far this year, it is behind its usual pace. If it is already up 15%, it is ahead. Here is every case today.
Behind the usual pace (19)
The usual seasonal move has not happened yet this year
Usually lower in this period (72% of 18 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 8 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged -7.37% and ended lower in 75%.
Usually higher in this period (75% of 28 years). 37 days in, 24 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +8.04% and ended higher in 82%.
Usually higher in this period (72% of 25 years). 37 days in, 24 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +4.56% and ended higher in 64%.
Usually higher in this period (79% of 24 years). 68 days in, 24 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +2.68% and ended higher in 91%.
Usually higher in this period (76% of 25 years). 37 days in, 24 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 12 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.23% and ended higher in 75%.
Usually higher in this period (67% of 30 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 15 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.06% and ended higher in 53%.
Usually higher in this period (77% of 30 years). 57 days in, 3 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 15 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.55% and ended higher in 60%.
Usually higher in this period (70% of 30 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Laggards rarely caught upIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.98% and ended higher in 45%.
Usually higher in this period (93% of 29 years). 23 days in, 57 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 12 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +11.19% and ended higher in 92%.
Usually higher in this period (83% of 30 years). 27 days in, 63 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 14 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +17.07% and ended higher in 93%.
Usually higher in this period (77% of 30 years). 7 days in, 85 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.32% and ended higher in 73%.
Usually higher in this period (78% of 18 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 11 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +2.31% and ended higher in 64%.
Usually higher in this period (73% of 30 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 13 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +8.73% and ended higher in 85%.
Usually higher in this period (83% of 30 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 13 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +5.96% and ended higher in 85%.
Usually higher in this period (68% of 28 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 12 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.93% and ended higher in 58%.
Usually higher in this period (82% of 11 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Laggards usually caught upIn the 8 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +18.11% and ended higher in 88%.
Usually higher in this period (71% of 24 years). 7 days in, 54 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 13 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +2.30% and ended higher in 69%.
Usually higher in this period (71% of 28 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 13 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.91% and ended higher in 69%.
Usually higher in this period (75% of 24 years). 7 days in, 54 days left.
Catch-up was a coin flipIn the 13 past years that were also behind on this date, the rest of the period averaged +4.97% and ended higher in 69%.
Ahead of the usual pace (22)
This year already moved more than a typical year by today
Usually higher in this period (77% of 30 years). 7 days in, 48 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 16 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +2.87% and ended higher in 63%.
Usually higher in this period (92% of 25 years). 17 days in, 8 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 10 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.11% and ended higher in 70%.
Usually lower in this period (82% of 22 years). 17 days in, 3 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 12 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged -0.13% and ended lower in 50%.
Usually higher in this period (78% of 27 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 15 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +9.41% and ended higher in 93%.
Usually higher in this period (83% of 30 years). 3 days in, 67 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 17 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +9.49% and ended higher in 82%.
Usually lower in this period (92% of 25 years). 68 days in, 24 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 11 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged -4.84% and ended lower in 73%.
Usually higher in this period (68% of 25 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 11 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +7.84% and ended higher in 82%.
Usually higher in this period (73% of 26 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 14 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +12.33% and ended higher in 79%.
Usually higher in this period (80% of 30 years). 65 days in, 10 days left.
Leaders usually gave some backIn the 16 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged -0.05% and ended higher in 44%.
Usually higher in this period (77% of 30 years). 7 days in, 54 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 13 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +5.04% and ended higher in 62%.
Usually higher in this period (83% of 30 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 17 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.72% and ended higher in 82%.
Usually higher in this period (82% of 11 years). 37 days in, 24 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 6 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +14.51% and ended higher in 83%.
Usually higher in this period (66% of 29 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 13 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged -0.60% and ended higher in 54%.
Usually higher in this period (86% of 29 years). 7 days in, 53 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 16 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.44% and ended higher in 56%.
Usually higher in this period (76% of 25 years). 7 days in, 85 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 14 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +6.80% and ended higher in 86%.
Usually lower in this period (80% of 25 years). 9 days in, 41 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 10 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged -7.66% and ended lower in 60%.
Usually higher in this period (76% of 25 years). 3 days in, 77 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 12 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +5.46% and ended higher in 67%.
Usually higher in this period (90% of 30 years). 37 days in, 54 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 17 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.90% and ended higher in 82%.
Usually higher in this period (80% of 30 years). 7 days in, 85 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 18 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +6.23% and ended higher in 72%.
Usually higher in this period (79% of 28 years). 9 days in, 16 days left.
Leaders usually gave some backIn the 10 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.66% and ended higher in 40%.
Usually higher in this period (70% of 30 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Mixed after a fast startIn the 17 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +0.88% and ended higher in 59%.
Usually higher in this period (67% of 24 years). 7 days in, 24 days left.
Leaders usually kept goingIn the 13 past years that were also ahead on this date, the rest of the period averaged +3.06% and ended higher in 92%.
Periods are seasons of two or three calendar months, seasonal windows and the current month when its pattern is moderate or strong, each with 10 years of data or more and a hit rate of at least 65%. A market counts as behind or ahead when it is more than a quarter of a typical year's spread away from the usual move by today. One period per market is shown, the one with the clearest gap.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.