Amazon: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Amazon has averaged +2.85% and risen in 55% of 29 years (1997 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 256.29 on October 6, 2026: +1.95% on the day, +11.03% this year, +2.87% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.84% | +3.67% | 55% | +8.21% | +31.15% | -16.13% | 29 | weak |
| February | -2.71% | -0.63% | 45% | -2.25% | +30.51% | -41.16% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| March | +4.61% | +2.05% | 72% | +1.93% | +34.39% | -10.37% | 29 | strong |
| April | +7.93% | +8.19% | 69% | +5.92% | +54.25% | -23.75% | 29 | strong |
| May | +1.72% | +2.11% | 62% | +2.06% | +25.10% | -30.98% | 29 | weak |
| June | +4.42% | +3.53% | 63% | +2.91% | +126.38% | -24.84% | 30 | weak |
| July | +4.57% | +4.34% | 67% | +6.37% | +55.41% | -30.48% | 30 | moderate |
| August | +1.52% | +0.32% | 50% | +0.71% | +37.76% | -28.42% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| September | +5.31% | +1.45% | 53% | -4.14% | +85.52% | -33.22% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| October | +2.85% | +2.35% | 55% | -0.29% | +27.26% | -21.33% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| November | +6.72% | +6.16% | 72% | +2.80% | +62.18% | -32.59% | 29 | strong |
| December | +0.50% | -0.62% | 41% | -1.58% | +67.32% | -36.96% | 29 | no clear pattern |
What drives Amazon
- AWS cloud growth and margins, plus the holiday shopping season and Prime Day.
- Consumer spending data and tariffs on imported goods affect the retail side.
Sell in May for Amazon
From 1998 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +26.38% and the May to October half +16.88%. The winter half did better in 46% of 28 years. Compare all markets.
How Amazon reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Amazon moved +1.21% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 52% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 5.91%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +1.06%. The largest was +19.82% on July 30, 2026.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | +19.82% | +17.45% | +13.06% |
| April 29, 2026 | +2.06% | +1.08% | +5.51% |
| February 5, 2026 | -9.73% | -10.45% | -8.49% |
| October 30, 2025 | +6.04% | +6.77% | +1.27% |
| July 31, 2025 | -6.71% | -4.75% | +0.61% |
| May 1, 2025 | +3.01% | +0.90% | +11.16% |
| February 6, 2025 | -2.97% | -2.38% | -15.63% |
| October 31, 2024 | +2.70% | +4.16% | +7.87% |
| August 1, 2024 | -10.20% | -7.02% | -7.95% |
| April 30, 2024 | -1.08% | +0.83% | +0.59% |
| February 1, 2024 | +10.70% | +8.37% | +14.83% |
| October 26, 2023 | +5.23% | +6.89% | +20.88% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Amazon
Questions
What is the best month for Amazon?
Since 1997, April has had the highest average move for Amazon at +7.93%, rising in 69% of 29 years. March has the highest share of positive years (72%).
What is the worst month for Amazon?
February has had the weakest average move at -2.71%, rising in 45% of 29 years.
How does Amazon usually do in October?
Amazon has averaged +2.85% in October (median +2.35%), rising in 55% of 29 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Alerts for Amazon
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.