What usually happens in December

The most consistent December strength has come from Novo Nordisk (+16.92%, up 84% of years), BIST 100 (+7.13%, up 76% of years), Corn (+5.45%, up 85% of years), Lean hogs (+5.10%, up 72% of years). The most consistent weakness: US dollar index (DXY) (-0.88%, up 36% of years), German 10-year Bund yield (-5 bp, up 33% of years).

For the S&P 500, December has averaged +1.27% with gains in 72% of years, and an average absolute move of 2.98%.

Stronger in December

Novo Nordisk+16.92% 84% up
BIST 100+7.13% 76% up
Corn+5.45% 85% up
Lean hogs+5.10% 72% up
Palladium+4.76% 68% up
Cotton+3.70% 69% up
Ibovespa+3.62% 67% up
Siemens+3.12% 67% up
Wheat+2.84% 65% up
Allianz+2.61% 76% up

Weaker in December

US dollar index (DXY)-0.88% 36% up
German 10-year Bund yield-5 bp 33% up

Every market in December

US indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Russell 2000	+2.38%	+2.63%	77%	39	strong
Nasdaq Composite	+1.49%	+0.58%	60%	55	moderate
S&P 500	+1.27%	+1.48%	72%	98	strong
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+0.97%	+1.26%	68%	34	strong

European indices

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
DAX	+2.21%	+2.62%	74%	38	strong
FTSE 100	+2.15%	+2.43%	79%	42	strong
IBEX 35	+1.44%	+1.98%	67%	33	strong
Swiss Market Index	+1.43%	+1.94%	72%	36	strong
FTSE MIB	+1.38%	+1.21%	57%	28	no clear pattern
CAC 40	+1.32%	+1.63%	67%	36	strong
Euro Stoxx 50	+0.90%	+1.21%	68%	19	moderate

Asia and emerging markets

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
BIST 100	+7.13%	+4.43%	76%	29	strong
Ibovespa	+3.62%	+2.85%	67%	33	strong
KOSPI	+2.01%	+2.03%	59%	29	weak
Hang Seng	+2.01%	+1.21%	67%	39	strong
Nikkei 225	+1.49%	+1.76%	69%	61	strong

US stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Nvidia	+3.32%	+2.69%	63%	27	no clear pattern
Eli Lilly	+2.59%	+1.05%	56%	54	moderate
Alphabet	+1.83%	+2.11%	68%	22	strong
JPMorgan Chase	+1.63%	+1.40%	54%	46	weak
Microsoft	+1.54%	+1.13%	57%	40	no clear pattern
Apple	+1.45%	+2.82%	60%	45	no clear pattern
Meta Platforms	+1.45%	+1.10%	64%	14	weak
Exxon Mobil	+1.21%	+1.54%	69%	64	strong
Tesla	+1.03%	+2.15%	63%	16	no clear pattern
Berkshire Hathaway	+0.73%	+0.90%	63%	30	no clear pattern
Amazon	+0.50%	-0.62%	41%	29	no clear pattern
Walmart	-0.20%	-0.41%	48%	54	no clear pattern

European stocks

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Novo Nordisk	+16.92%	+3.62%	84%	25	strong
Siemens	+3.12%	+3.60%	67%	30	strong
Allianz	+2.61%	+3.60%	76%	29	strong
ASML	+2.05%	+2.17%	64%	28	weak
Shell	+1.58%	+0.90%	63%	30	moderate
TotalEnergies	+1.41%	+0.32%	50%	26	no clear pattern
SAP	+1.40%	+0.49%	50%	28	no clear pattern
Nestlé	+1.33%	+0.90%	64%	36	moderate
Airbus	+1.05%	+2.25%	60%	25	no clear pattern
LVMH	+0.99%	+2.32%	69%	26	moderate

Crypto

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
XRP	+76.95%	-14.83%	33%	9	no clear pattern
BNB	+40.78%	+7.13%	56%	9	no clear pattern
Bitcoin	+7.14%	-3.16%	42%	12	no clear pattern
Ether	+7.13%	-0.84%	44%	9	no clear pattern
Solana	-4.48%	-19.39%	17%	6	weak

Energy

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
European natural gas (TTF)	+1.88%	0.00%	29%	34	no clear pattern
Gasoline (RBOB)	+1.80%	+3.38%	65%	26	weak
WTI crude oil	+0.26%	+2.98%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Heating oil (ULSD)	-0.41%	+2.21%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Brent crude oil	-0.59%	+0.56%	53%	19	no clear pattern
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	-4.99%	-5.37%	38%	26	no clear pattern

Metals

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Palladium	+4.76%	+4.66%	68%	28	strong
Platinum	+2.43%	+1.32%	62%	26	moderate
Silver	+2.42%	+3.31%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Gold	+1.45%	+1.89%	65%	26	moderate
Copper	+1.02%	+1.69%	62%	26	no clear pattern
Nickel	+0.96%	+0.70%	53%	34	no clear pattern
Aluminium	+0.89%	+1.24%	59%	34	no clear pattern

Grains and oilseeds

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Corn	+5.45%	+3.98%	85%	26	strong
Wheat	+2.84%	+2.42%	65%	26	moderate
Soybeans	+2.08%	+0.01%	50%	26	weak

Softs

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Cotton	+3.70%	+3.33%	69%	26	strong
Cocoa	+2.59%	+2.61%	58%	26	no clear pattern
Coffee (Arabica)	+1.61%	-0.16%	46%	26	no clear pattern
Sugar	+0.82%	+0.70%	54%	26	no clear pattern

Livestock

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
Lean hogs	+5.10%	+4.44%	72%	25	strong
Live cattle	+1.62%	+2.52%	84%	25	weak

Rates

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
US 10-year Treasury yield	0 bp	0 bp	50%	64	no clear pattern
US 2-year Treasury yield	-2 bp	+2 bp	52%	50	no clear pattern
German 10-year Bund yield	-5 bp	-2 bp	33%	70	strong

Currencies

Market	Average	Median	Up years	Years	Pattern
EUR/USD	+0.86%	+0.81%	68%	22	moderate
USD/TRY	+0.73%	+1.10%	62%	21	weak
USD/JPY	+0.17%	-0.01%	50%	30	no clear pattern
USD/BRL	-0.01%	+0.02%	50%	20	no clear pattern
GBP/USD	-0.37%	-0.48%	45%	22	no clear pattern
US dollar index (DXY)	-0.88%	-0.79%	36%	55	strong

Pattern ratings combine consistency across both halves of the sample, the share of up years and a t-statistic. See the methodology.

November · January

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.