Euro Stoxx 50: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Euro Stoxx 50 has averaged +0.68% and risen in 63% of 19 years (2007 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 6,272.23 on October 6, 2026: +0.48% on the day, +8.21% this year, +0.05% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.13% | +2.62% | 53% | +2.23% | +9.75% | -13.79% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.13% | +2.01% | 58% | +0.56% | +7.39% | -11.66% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| March | -0.09% | +0.39% | 53% | -1.14% | +7.78% | -16.30% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.92% | +1.55% | 70% | +1.74% | +14.69% | -6.90% | 20 | strong |
| May | -0.69% | +0.51% | 50% | -0.01% | +4.18% | -8.13% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.91% | -0.84% | 35% | +0.61% | +6.88% | -11.25% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.69% | +0.54% | 70% | +1.19% | +9.84% | -6.25% | 20 | strong |
| August | -1.12% | -0.28% | 45% | -0.57% | +5.00% | -13.79% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.25% | +0.37% | 55% | -0.32% | +6.31% | -9.73% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.68% | +2.01% | 63% | +0.19% | +10.24% | -14.69% | 19 | weak |
| November | +1.31% | +0.11% | 53% | +2.98% | +18.06% | -6.82% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.90% | +1.21% | 68% | +1.20% | +7.83% | -6.23% | 19 | moderate |
What drives Euro Stoxx 50
- The 50 largest companies in the euro area, the benchmark for euro-area equity derivatives.
- Driven by ECB policy, bank margins, energy costs and global trade.
Sell in May for Euro Stoxx 50
From 2008 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +4.20% and the May to October half -1.21%. The winter half did better in 61% of 18 years. Compare all markets.
How Euro Stoxx 50 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 21 | +0.48% | -0.10% | +0.65% | 60% |
| Fed cuts | 20 | +0.51% | +0.09% | +0.68% | 65% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 3 | +2.60% | +2.93% | -1.72% | 50% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 3 | +0.50% | +0.48% | +1.65% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 9 | +0.86% | +0.89% | +1.09% | 78% |
| ECB hikes | 17 | +0.12% | -0.57% | -0.07% | 56% |
| ECB cuts | 22 | -0.38% | -1.29% | -0.08% | 41% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Euro Stoxx 50
The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes
French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.
Questions
What is the best month for Euro Stoxx 50?
Since 2007, April has had the highest average move for Euro Stoxx 50 at +1.92%, rising in 70% of 20 years. April has the highest share of positive years (70%).
What is the worst month for Euro Stoxx 50?
August has had the weakest average move at -1.12%, rising in 45% of 20 years.
How does Euro Stoxx 50 usually do in October?
Euro Stoxx 50 has averaged +0.68% in October (median +2.01%), rising in 63% of 19 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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