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Question

What is the best month for FTSE MIB?

Short answer

Since 1998, November has been the strongest month for FTSE MIB, averaging +1.88% and rising in 61% of 28 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.85%.

We rate the November pattern as moderate and the September pattern as weak. April comes second at +1.80%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

FTSE MIB, 1998 to 2026

+1.9%+0.9%-0.9%-1.9%Jan: average +1.38%, up in 62% of 29 yearsJanFeb: average +0.61%, up in 62% of 29 yearsFebMar: average +0.67%, up in 52% of 29 yearsMarApr: average +1.80%, up in 55% of 29 yearsAprMay: average -1.26%, up in 48% of 29 yearsMayJun: average -1.51%, up in 28% of 29 yearsJunJul: average +1.02%, up in 62% of 29 yearsJulAug: average -0.73%, up in 55% of 29 yearsAugSep: average -1.85%, up in 41% of 29 yearsSepOct: average +1.56%, up in 71% of 28 yearsOctNov: average +1.88%, up in 61% of 28 yearsNovDec: average +1.38%, up in 57% of 28 yearsDec
FTSE MIB: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+1.88%+1.20%61%moderate
2April+1.80%+0.42%55%weak
3October+1.56%+2.88%71%moderate
4January+1.38%+1.39%62%weak
5December+1.38%+1.21%57%no clear pattern
6July+1.02%+1.04%62%no clear pattern
7March+0.67%+0.74%52%no clear pattern
8February+0.61%+1.83%62%no clear pattern
9August-0.73%+0.57%55%no clear pattern
10May-1.26%-0.71%48%no clear pattern
11June-1.51%-1.08%28%moderate
12September-1.85%-0.74%41%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 123 days
79%higher in 28 years
Average +1.31%Median +1.45%Worst year -10.06%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1998 to 2011: 79%, 2012 to 2025: 79%.

Mar 14 to May 8Opens in 157 days
79%higher in 28 years
Average +3.58%Median +1.82%Worst year -16.48%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1998 to 2011: 71%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Jun 12 to Jun 27Opens in 247 days
82%lower in 28 years
Average -1.62%Median -0.84%Worst year +4.03%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 86%, 2012 to 2025: 79%.

Oct 2 to Dec 6Open now, 59 days left
82%higher in 28 years
Average +4.00%Median +3.19%Worst year -30.03%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 79%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Why it might happen

  • Italy's benchmark, with banks the largest sector, making it highly sensitive to bond spreads and rates.
  • Italian budget and political headlines move the BTP-Bund spread and with it the index.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: FTSE MIB. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.