Eli Lilly: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Eli Lilly has averaged +2.07% and risen in 59% of 54 years (1972 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 1,157.49 on October 6, 2026: +1.26% on the day, +8.23% this year, +0.04% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.77% | -0.36% | 50% | +2.94% | +23.18% | -15.33% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.84% | +0.74% | 54% | +2.44% | +16.94% | -19.13% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.05% | +1.31% | 61% | +1.12% | +24.17% | -12.57% | 54 | weak |
| April | +1.67% | +0.50% | 56% | +3.00% | +23.15% | -13.32% | 54 | weak |
| May | +2.21% | +0.64% | 59% | +3.43% | +19.05% | -17.77% | 54 | moderate |
| June | +2.45% | +3.11% | 65% | +5.88% | +31.20% | -12.83% | 54 | strong |
| July | -0.24% | +0.44% | 53% | -0.96% | +16.97% | -14.74% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| August | +0.70% | -0.02% | 49% | +4.98% | +22.18% | -29.47% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.49% | -0.73% | 45% | -0.43% | +19.11% | -20.82% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| October | +2.07% | +2.09% | 59% | +1.10% | +28.44% | -23.19% | 54 | no clear pattern |
| November | +3.09% | +2.98% | 70% | +4.94% | +24.82% | -17.33% | 54 | strong |
| December | +2.59% | +1.05% | 56% | +4.04% | +17.92% | -10.22% | 54 | moderate |
What drives Eli Lilly
- Obesity and diabetes drug sales, manufacturing capacity and pricing policy.
- Clinical trial readouts and US drug-pricing headlines.
Sell in May for Eli Lilly
From 1973 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +9.90% and the May to October half +5.61%. The winter half did better in 58% of 53 years. Compare all markets.
How Eli Lilly reacts to its earnings
Across 67 results announcements since 2010, Eli Lilly moved +0.59% on average over the two sessions around the release, rising 49% of the time. The typical move, up or down, was 3.66%, and the average move relative to the S&P 500 was +0.54%. The largest was -16.17% on August 7, 2025.
| Results filed | Two-day move | Versus S&P 500 | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 5, 2026 | +6.84% | +7.18% | +4.13% |
| April 30, 2026 | +13.17% | +11.85% | +30.04% |
| February 4, 2026 | +1.73% | +3.46% | -1.85% |
| October 30, 2025 | +6.06% | +6.79% | +32.39% |
| August 7, 2025 | -16.17% | -16.87% | -2.35% |
| May 1, 2025 | -8.38% | -10.49% | -17.77% |
| February 6, 2025 | +4.29% | +4.88% | +3.43% |
| October 30, 2024 | -8.17% | -5.98% | -12.63% |
| August 8, 2024 | +15.48% | +12.70% | +17.07% |
| April 30, 2024 | +5.36% | +7.27% | +10.27% |
| February 6, 2024 | +2.72% | +1.66% | +10.61% |
| November 2, 2023 | +2.41% | -0.43% | +5.53% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Eli Lilly
Questions
What is the best month for Eli Lilly?
Since 1972, November has had the highest average move for Eli Lilly at +3.09%, rising in 70% of 54 years. November has the highest share of positive years (70%).
What is the worst month for Eli Lilly?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.49%, rising in 45% of 55 years.
How does Eli Lilly usually do in October?
Eli Lilly has averaged +2.07% in October (median +2.09%), rising in 59% of 54 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.