Bitcoin: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Bitcoin has averaged +16.63% and risen in 75% of 12 years (2014 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 85,557.56 on October 6, 2026: -0.27% on the day, -2.23% this year, +2.40% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.15% | -3.46% | 50% | +3.26% | +39.84% | -32.08% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| February | +10.19% | +11.86% | 75% | +8.67% | +43.72% | -17.61% | 12 | strong |
| March | +0.48% | -0.16% | 50% | +1.45% | +30.53% | -32.93% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| April | +10.16% | +9.70% | 67% | +11.76% | +34.48% | -17.18% | 12 | moderate |
| May | +8.08% | +3.37% | 50% | +8.10% | +69.63% | -35.35% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.05% | -0.51% | 50% | -4.04% | +26.71% | -37.77% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| July | +8.88% | +8.13% | 75% | +10.56% | +23.92% | -7.23% | 12 | strong |
| August | +1.95% | -7.19% | 33% | +5.04% | +63.58% | -19.18% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.14% | -0.24% | 50% | -2.23% | +7.39% | -13.88% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| October | +16.63% | +12.94% | 75% | +17.91% | +49.09% | -12.57% | 12 | strong |
| November | +7.51% | +7.58% | 58% | +5.83% | +58.21% | -36.41% | 12 | no clear pattern |
| December | +7.14% | -3.16% | 42% | +8.69% | +47.77% | -18.77% | 12 | no clear pattern |
What drives Bitcoin
- Spot ETF flows, global liquidity and real yields have become key drivers since US spot ETFs launched.
- The four-year halving cycle cuts new supply; past cycles peaked twelve to eighteen months after a halving.
- Regulatory headlines and large holder or treasury-company buying and selling.
Sell in May for Bitcoin
From 2015 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +50.81% and the May to October half +52.71%. The winter half did better in 55% of 11 years. Compare all markets.
How Bitcoin reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 21 | +0.41% | -0.17% | -1.41% | 52% |
| Fed cuts | 11 | +0.58% | +1.84% | -1.44% | 45% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 3 | +3.35% | +5.41% | +9.60% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 3 | +4.41% | +3.71% | +0.61% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 12 | 0.00% | +1.70% | +1.23% | 42% |
| ECB cuts | 11 | +0.10% | +0.83% | -0.28% | 55% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | +0.77% | +2.59% | +3.47% | 63% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Bitcoin
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle
October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.
Questions
What is the best month for Bitcoin?
Since 2014, October has had the highest average move for Bitcoin at +16.63%, rising in 75% of 12 years. February has the highest share of positive years (75%).
What is the worst month for Bitcoin?
January has had the weakest average move at -1.15%, rising in 50% of 12 years.
How does Bitcoin usually do in October?
Bitcoin has averaged +16.63% in October (median +12.94%), rising in 75% of 12 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.