DAX: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, DAX has averaged +1.99% and risen in 68% of 38 years (1988 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 25,449.19 on October 6, 2026: +0.77% on the day, +3.91% this year, +0.99% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.85% | +2.10% | 59% | +2.06% | +9.50% | -15.07% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.06% | +2.15% | 56% | +0.06% | +15.74% | -11.40% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.40% | +0.09% | 51% | -1.22% | +9.92% | -16.44% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.65% | +1.50% | 72% | +2.78% | +21.38% | -7.82% | 39 | strong |
| May | +1.03% | +1.88% | 64% | +1.85% | +6.68% | -7.35% | 39 | moderate |
| June | -0.04% | -0.17% | 49% | -0.23% | +7.98% | -11.15% | 39 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.60% | +1.85% | 67% | +1.28% | +16.95% | -15.57% | 39 | strong |
| August | -1.84% | -0.09% | 49% | -0.29% | +5.97% | -19.19% | 39 | weak |
| September | -2.08% | -1.43% | 38% | -0.65% | +7.20% | -25.42% | 39 | moderate |
| October | +1.99% | +2.41% | 68% | -0.03% | +13.86% | -14.46% | 38 | strong |
| November | +2.61% | +2.87% | 66% | +3.12% | +15.01% | -9.96% | 38 | strong |
| December | +2.21% | +2.62% | 74% | +1.36% | +18.01% | -12.88% | 38 | strong |
What drives DAX
- Germany's 40 largest companies, heavy in autos, industrials, chemicals and software.
- Export-driven: sensitive to China demand, energy prices and the euro exchange rate.
- A total-return index, so dividends are reinvested, which flatters spring months when most German companies pay.
Sell in May for DAX
From 1989 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.26% and the May to October half -0.13%. The winter half did better in 73% of 37 years. Compare all markets.
How DAX reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.56% | +0.26% | +0.59% | 69% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.27% | -0.10% | +1.46% | 62% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +1.40% | +0.90% | -2.59% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +0.32% | -1.43% | +3.08% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.60% | +0.04% | +2.97% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.06% | -0.07% | +0.96% | 67% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.44% | -1.42% | +0.46% | 57% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -1.28% | -2.52% | +0.59% | 63% |
Year by year
Latest insights on DAX
Questions
What is the best month for DAX?
Since 1988, April has had the highest average move for DAX at +2.65%, rising in 72% of 39 years. December has the highest share of positive years (74%).
What is the worst month for DAX?
September has had the weakest average move at -2.08%, rising in 38% of 39 years.
How does DAX usually do in October?
DAX has averaged +1.99% in October (median +2.41%), rising in 68% of 38 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.