Brent crude oil: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Brent crude oil has averaged -1.01% and risen in 53% of 19 years (2007 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 100.58 on October 6, 2026: +0.26% on the day, +65.29% this year, -2.85% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.15% | +2.84% | 58% | +5.46% | +17.27% | -11.88% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| February | +4.15% | +2.88% | 68% | +1.72% | +18.34% | -13.14% | 19 | strong |
| March | +1.60% | +2.13% | 63% | +1.85% | +63.29% | -54.99% | 19 | weak |
| April | +3.86% | +5.55% | 68% | +1.06% | +21.54% | -15.55% | 19 | strong |
| May | +0.80% | -1.83% | 47% | +1.10% | +39.81% | -19.26% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| June | +1.21% | +2.38% | 63% | +1.26% | +16.47% | -20.78% | 19 | weak |
| July | +0.90% | +3.46% | 58% | +4.24% | +23.59% | -17.90% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| August | -0.90% | -2.00% | 40% | -2.21% | +10.79% | -12.29% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.38% | -1.22% | 45% | +2.01% | +14.41% | -13.92% | 20 | no clear pattern |
| October | -1.01% | +0.43% | 53% | -0.71% | +14.48% | -33.46% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| November | -2.91% | -0.30% | 47% | -1.81% | +27.04% | -22.21% | 19 | no clear pattern |
| December | -0.59% | +0.56% | 53% | +2.46% | +11.21% | -18.28% | 19 | no clear pattern |
What drives Brent crude oil
- The global seaborne benchmark; reacts to OPEC+ policy, Middle East shipping risk and China imports.
- Seasonal demand peaks in the northern summer and again in winter heating demand for distillates.
Sell in May for Brent crude oil
From 2008 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +5.29% and the May to October half -0.26%. The winter half did better in 61% of 18 years. Compare all markets.
How Brent crude oil reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +6.49% | +4.09% | +4.52% | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Brent crude oil
Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window
OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.
Questions
What is the best month for Brent crude oil?
Since 2007, February has had the highest average move for Brent crude oil at +4.15%, rising in 68% of 19 years. February has the highest share of positive years (68%).
What is the worst month for Brent crude oil?
November has had the weakest average move at -2.91%, rising in 47% of 19 years.
How does Brent crude oil usually do in October?
Brent crude oil has averaged -1.01% in October (median +0.43%), rising in 53% of 19 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Get alerts for Brent crude oil
Free during launch. Pick your markets and topics; we email when something relevant happens, with sources and history attached.
Build a free watchlistNot investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.