Market SeasonalityFree alerts
Question

What is the best month for Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Short answer

Since 1992, November has been the strongest month for Dow Jones Industrial Average, averaging +2.69% and rising in 76% of 34 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.80%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +2.17%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1992 to 2026

+2.7%+1.3%-1.3%-2.7%Jan: average +0.28%, up in 59% of 34 yearsJanFeb: average -0.01%, up in 63% of 35 yearsFebMar: average +0.54%, up in 63% of 35 yearsMarApr: average +2.17%, up in 74% of 35 yearsAprMay: average +0.49%, up in 66% of 35 yearsMayJun: average -0.11%, up in 49% of 35 yearsJunJul: average +1.61%, up in 77% of 35 yearsJulAug: average -0.45%, up in 57% of 35 yearsAugSep: average -0.80%, up in 49% of 35 yearsSepOct: average +1.75%, up in 65% of 34 yearsOctNov: average +2.69%, up in 76% of 34 yearsNovDec: average +0.97%, up in 68% of 34 yearsDec
Dow Jones Industrial Average: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+2.69%+3.00%76%strong
2April+2.17%+1.79%74%strong
3October+1.75%+2.27%65%moderate
4July+1.61%+1.00%77%strong
5December+0.97%+1.26%68%strong
6March+0.54%+1.05%63%weak
7May+0.49%+1.05%66%no clear pattern
8January+0.28%+0.42%59%no clear pattern
9February-0.01%+1.18%63%no clear pattern
10June-0.11%-0.08%49%no clear pattern
11August-0.45%+0.63%57%no clear pattern
12September-0.80%-0.32%49%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 25 to Feb 14Opens in 109 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +1.18%Median +1.21%Worst year -5.68%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Mar 14 to Jun 7Opens in 157 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +3.79%Median +2.51%Worst year -8.82%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Jun 30 to Jul 20Opens in 265 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +1.47%Median +2.32%Worst year -13.24%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Oct 20 to Dec 9Opens in 12 days
93%higher in 30 years
Average +4.02%Median +4.16%Worst year -4.15%

Likely range of the hit rate 78% to 98%. 1996 to 2010: 100%, 2011 to 2025: 87%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • A price-weighted index of 30 large US companies, tilted to industrials, financials and health care.
  • More exposed to the economic cycle and less to technology than the Nasdaq.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Dow Jones Industrial Average. How to read these numbers: guide.

Alerts for Dow Jones

Pick your markets. We email when something relevant moves. Free during launch.

Free alerts

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.