Copper: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Copper has averaged -0.21% and risen in 46% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 6.5945 on October 6, 2026: +0.14% on the day, +17.13% this year, +0.54% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.90% | +1.98% | 65% | +2.43% | +13.56% | -10.94% | 26 | weak |
| February | +2.93% | +2.01% | 65% | +2.42% | +17.50% | -5.26% | 26 | strong |
| March | +1.41% | +0.23% | 54% | -0.42% | +20.51% | -12.02% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +2.10% | +0.65% | 54% | +1.29% | +34.06% | -10.97% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| May | -0.10% | +0.33% | 58% | +0.01% | +11.42% | -12.29% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.57% | +1.22% | 54% | -0.27% | +11.83% | -13.52% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.57% | +3.08% | 62% | -0.15% | +15.88% | -13.91% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| August | -0.98% | -1.54% | 42% | -0.14% | +7.32% | -7.72% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| September | +0.24% | +0.32% | 56% | +0.61% | +9.29% | -24.89% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.21% | -0.43% | 46% | +0.92% | +15.39% | -36.15% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.60% | +1.36% | 54% | +4.35% | +19.13% | -11.96% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +1.02% | +1.69% | 62% | +2.01% | +16.13% | -14.07% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Copper
- China's construction and grid spending, global factory activity and electrification.
- Mine disruptions in Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo and smelter treatment charges.
- US tariff decisions have created gaps between New York and London prices.
Sell in May for Copper
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +10.79% and the May to October half +0.31%. The winter half did better in 68% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How Copper reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 38 | +0.20% | +1.45% | +1.75% | 59% |
| Fed cuts | 33 | +0.41% | -0.67% | -0.36% | 42% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 4 | +0.81% | +4.70% | +1.81% | 67% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 4 | +0.38% | +2.07% | +2.06% | 75% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.47% | +0.19% | -0.63% | 44% |
| ECB hikes | 26 | -0.28% | -1.08% | -0.44% | 44% |
| ECB cuts | 29 | -0.58% | -1.31% | -0.98% | 41% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -0.85% | -1.79% | -1.51% | 38% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Copper
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Questions
What is the best month for Copper?
Since 2000, February has had the highest average move for Copper at +2.93%, rising in 65% of 26 years. January has the highest share of positive years (65%).
What is the worst month for Copper?
August has had the weakest average move at -0.98%, rising in 42% of 26 years.
How does Copper usually do in October?
Copper has averaged -0.21% in October (median -0.43%), rising in 46% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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