USD/JPY: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, USD/JPY has averaged -0.19% and risen in 55% of 29 years (1997 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 157.96 on October 6, 2026: +0.15% on the day, +0.99% this year, +0.36% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-day crossed below 200-day | Sep 30 | 21 | -0.74% | 52% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.00% | -0.70% | 47% | -0.74% | +5.89% | -4.84% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| February | +0.62% | +0.44% | 53% | +0.85% | +8.59% | -4.43% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.76% | +0.53% | 53% | +0.64% | +7.53% | -6.56% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| April | +0.34% | +0.01% | 50% | +0.65% | +7.20% | -4.89% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| May | -0.04% | -0.35% | 47% | +0.22% | +4.49% | -8.58% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.21% | +0.36% | 53% | +1.68% | +6.89% | -7.27% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| July | -0.25% | +0.12% | 53% | -1.10% | +4.63% | -5.17% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| August | -1.00% | -1.46% | 37% | -0.04% | +3.79% | -5.10% | 30 | strong |
| September | +0.17% | +0.32% | 57% | +1.17% | +5.49% | -4.79% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.19% | +0.47% | 55% | +1.78% | +7.30% | -15.06% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| November | +0.78% | +0.24% | 57% | +0.01% | +7.90% | -6.13% | 30 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.17% | -0.01% | 50% | -0.30% | +7.72% | -7.71% | 30 | no clear pattern |
What drives USD/JPY
- The gap between US and Japanese yields; Bank of Japan policy shifts and intervention risk.
- Japanese fiscal year end in March brings repatriation flows.
Sell in May for USD/JPY
From 1997 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +2.63% and the May to October half -1.06%. The winter half did better in 66% of 29 years. Compare all markets.
How USD/JPY reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 45 | +0.10% | +0.06% | +0.06% | 50% |
| Fed cuts | 36 | +0.23% | +0.20% | +0.37% | 67% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 6 | +0.32% | +0.76% | +0.88% | 60% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 5 | -0.12% | -0.11% | -1.12% | 60% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.69% | +0.27% | +1.43% | 72% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | -0.07% | +0.46% | -0.10% | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.44% | 33% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -0.28% | -1.75% | -1.14% | 38% |
Year by year
Latest insights on USD/JPY
Questions
What is the best month for USD/JPY?
Since 1996, November has had the highest average move for USD/JPY at +0.78%, rising in 57% of 30 years. September has the highest share of positive years (57%).
What is the worst month for USD/JPY?
August has had the weakest average move at -1.00%, rising in 37% of 30 years.
How does USD/JPY usually do in October?
USD/JPY has averaged -0.19% in October (median +0.47%), rising in 55% of 29 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.