Lean hogs: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Lean hogs has averaged -5.56% and risen in 28% of 25 years (2001 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 77.93 on October 6, 2026: +0.10% on the day, -8.43% this year, -1.02% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.20% | +1.70% | 62% | -0.97% | +12.32% | -20.02% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +6.00% | +5.67% | 73% | +7.62% | +24.86% | -8.19% | 26 | strong |
| March | -0.83% | -2.58% | 31% | +0.65% | +38.48% | -16.18% | 26 | weak |
| April | +8.68% | +8.97% | 81% | +7.08% | +29.22% | -12.10% | 26 | strong |
| May | +3.61% | +3.00% | 73% | +6.12% | +22.32% | -8.57% | 26 | strong |
| June | +0.68% | +1.94% | 54% | -0.30% | +17.03% | -20.54% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| July | -0.17% | +2.71% | 54% | +1.08% | +15.11% | -26.24% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| August | -13.86% | -14.06% | 8% | -15.67% | +3.08% | -40.37% | 26 | strong |
| September | +3.90% | +3.32% | 69% | +4.94% | +35.82% | -22.00% | 26 | strong |
| October | -5.56% | -6.30% | 28% | -4.36% | +22.74% | -20.09% | 25 | strong |
| November | +1.52% | -0.83% | 48% | -1.60% | +25.68% | -6.33% | 25 | no clear pattern |
| December | +5.10% | +4.44% | 72% | +8.61% | +29.64% | -10.10% | 25 | strong |
What drives Lean hogs
- Strong seasonal pattern: prices usually peak in early summer and fall into the autumn slaughter peak.
- Export demand from Mexico and Asia and disease outbreaks.
Sell in May for Lean hogs
From 2002 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +21.56% and the May to October half -13.91%. The winter half did better in 92% of 24 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Lean hogs
Questions
What is the best month for Lean hogs?
Since 2001, April has had the highest average move for Lean hogs at +8.68%, rising in 81% of 26 years. April has the highest share of positive years (81%).
What is the worst month for Lean hogs?
August has had the weakest average move at -13.86%, rising in 8% of 26 years.
How does Lean hogs usually do in October?
Lean hogs has averaged -5.56% in October (median -6.30%), rising in 28% of 25 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.