Cotton: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Cotton has averaged +0.67% and risen in 65% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 77.48 on October 6, 2026: +0.45% on the day, +20.55% this year, +3.60% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.26% | +0.24% | 50% | +2.48% | +16.32% | -8.69% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +1.92% | +0.52% | 56% | +1.34% | +21.79% | -14.88% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.36% | +0.74% | 52% | -0.06% | +17.80% | -16.98% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| April | +0.36% | -1.59% | 44% | +3.28% | +15.11% | -14.73% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| May | -2.21% | -4.05% | 33% | -2.25% | +18.35% | -17.99% | 27 | moderate |
| June | -1.02% | +0.71% | 52% | -4.71% | +18.57% | -25.21% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.19% | +0.32% | 56% | +1.87% | +18.05% | -36.12% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| August | +1.44% | +1.12% | 52% | +2.77% | +22.75% | -11.92% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | -2.18% | -2.90% | 41% | -3.25% | +16.95% | -21.19% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.67% | +1.24% | 65% | -1.00% | +20.23% | -22.76% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.52% | +1.01% | 58% | +3.36% | +24.75% | -11.71% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +3.70% | +3.33% | 69% | +0.89% | +16.86% | -7.98% | 26 | strong |
What drives Cotton
- US planting and Texas weather, Chinese demand and the apparel cycle.
Sell in May for Cotton
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.59% and the May to October half -2.51%. The winter half did better in 60% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Cotton
Questions
What is the best month for Cotton?
Since 2000, December has had the highest average move for Cotton at +3.70%, rising in 69% of 26 years. December has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Cotton?
May has had the weakest average move at -2.21%, rising in 33% of 27 years.
How does Cotton usually do in October?
Cotton has averaged +0.67% in October (median +1.24%), rising in 65% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Alerts for Cotton
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.