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Scenario scorecard

27 testable scenarios published, 0 graded so far. Scenarios come in opposing pairs, so a hit rate near 50% is expected by construction; the scorecard exists so you can see which explanations matched what happened.

PublishedInsightScenarioMarketCallMove so farStatus
Oct 6The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycleRates override the calendarS&P 500down in 85 days0.00%open
Oct 6The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycleCycle holdsS&P 500up in 85 days0.00%open
Oct 6Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rainSugar deficit priced furtherSugarup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rainCocoa follows the calendarCocoadown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikesDollar strength continuesEUR/USDdown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikesFiscal fears easeCAC 40up in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13Credit worriesJPMorgan Chasedown in 20 days0.00%open
Oct 6Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13Margin liftJPMorgan Chaseup in 20 days0.00%open
Oct 6Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycleLate-cycle driftBitcoindown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycleSeasonal strengthBitcoinup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highsOfficial demand and haven flowsGoldup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highsYields cap goldGolddown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disruptedMild start to winterNatural gas (Henry Hub)down in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disruptedSeasonal pattern repeatsNatural gas (Henry Hub)up in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak windowDiesel squeezeHeating oil (ULSD)up in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak windowSupply shock deepensBrent crude oilup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak windowRisk premium fadesBrent crude oildown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a recordRunoff reversalIbovespadown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a recordMomentum holdsIbovespaup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to marketsFormal escalationKOSPIdown in 20 days0.00%open
Oct 6Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to marketsRhetoric onlyKOSPIup in 20 days0.00%open
Oct 6Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting recordsBond rallyUS 10-year Treasury yielddown in 30 days0 bpopen
Oct 6Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting recordsYields biteNasdaq Compositedown in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting recordsEarnings outrun yieldsNasdaq Compositeup in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hikingGrowth scareUS 10-year Treasury yielddown in 30 days0 bpopen
Oct 6A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hikingSecond hike priced back inUS dollar index (DXY)up in 30 days0.00%open
Oct 6A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hikingPause and waitUS 2-year Treasury yielddown in 30 days0 bpopen

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.