Dow Jones Industrial Average: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged +1.75% and risen in 65% of 34 years (1992 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 51,521.28 on October 6, 2026: +0.49% on the day, +7.19% this year, +1.21% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.28% | +0.42% | 59% | +1.76% | +7.17% | -8.84% | 34 | no clear pattern |
| February | -0.01% | +1.18% | 63% | -0.97% | +8.08% | -11.72% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.54% | +1.05% | 63% | -1.48% | +7.84% | -13.74% | 35 | weak |
| April | +2.17% | +1.79% | 74% | +1.45% | +11.08% | -5.00% | 35 | strong |
| May | +0.49% | +1.05% | 66% | +0.64% | +4.59% | -7.92% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| June | -0.11% | -0.08% | 49% | +1.56% | +7.19% | -10.19% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| July | +1.61% | +1.00% | 77% | +2.68% | +8.58% | -5.48% | 35 | strong |
| August | -0.45% | +0.63% | 57% | +0.94% | +7.57% | -15.13% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.80% | -0.32% | 49% | -1.35% | +7.72% | -12.37% | 35 | no clear pattern |
| October | +1.75% | +2.27% | 65% | +1.38% | +13.95% | -14.06% | 34 | moderate |
| November | +2.69% | +3.00% | 76% | +4.50% | +11.84% | -5.32% | 34 | strong |
| December | +0.97% | +1.26% | 68% | +0.30% | +6.86% | -8.66% | 34 | strong |
What drives Dow Jones Industrial Average
- A price-weighted index of 30 large US companies, tilted to industrials, financials and health care.
- More exposed to the economic cycle and less to technology than the Nasdaq.
Sell in May for Dow Jones Industrial Average
From 1993 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +6.71% and the May to October half +2.54%. The winter half did better in 67% of 33 years. Compare all markets.
How Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.11% | -0.30% | -0.19% | 55% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.22% | -0.17% | +0.37% | 64% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.01% | -0.23% | -1.81% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +0.76% | -0.53% | +1.62% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.51% | -0.65% | +1.17% | 78% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.15% | -0.74% | +0.16% | 60% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.79% | -1.40% | +0.57% | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Dow Jones Industrial Average
Questions
What is the best month for Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Since 1992, November has had the highest average move for Dow Jones Industrial Average at +2.69%, rising in 76% of 34 years. July has the highest share of positive years (77%).
What is the worst month for Dow Jones Industrial Average?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.80%, rising in 49% of 35 years.
How does Dow Jones Industrial Average usually do in October?
Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged +1.75% in October (median +2.27%), rising in 65% of 34 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.