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Question

What is the best month for USD/BRL?

Short answer

Since 2006, November has been the strongest month for USD/BRL, averaging +2.31% and rising in 65% of 20 years. April has been the weakest, at -1.42%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the April pattern as moderate. September comes second at +2.17%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

USD/BRL, 2004 to 2026

+2.3%+1.2%-1.2%-2.3%Jan: average -0.99%, up in 33% of 21 yearsJanFeb: average +0.29%, up in 43% of 21 yearsFebMar: average +1.11%, up in 52% of 21 yearsMarApr: average -1.42%, up in 36% of 22 yearsAprMay: average +1.77%, up in 73% of 22 yearsMayJun: average -0.56%, up in 36% of 22 yearsJunJul: average -0.47%, up in 41% of 22 yearsJulAug: average +2.02%, up in 64% of 22 yearsAugSep: average +2.17%, up in 57% of 21 yearsSepOct: average -0.77%, up in 45% of 20 yearsOctNov: average +2.31%, up in 65% of 20 yearsNovDec: average -0.01%, up in 50% of 20 yearsDec
USD/BRL: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+2.31%+2.47%65%strong
2September+2.17%+0.70%57%no clear pattern
3August+2.02%+1.04%64%strong
4May+1.77%+1.23%73%strong
5March+1.11%+0.94%52%no clear pattern
6February+0.29%-0.60%43%no clear pattern
7December-0.01%+0.02%50%no clear pattern
8July-0.47%-1.14%41%no clear pattern
9June-0.56%-1.33%36%weak
10October-0.77%-1.55%45%no clear pattern
11January-0.99%-2.03%33%moderate
12April-1.42%-1.80%36%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 5 to Jan 15Opens in 89 days
82%lower in 22 years
Average -0.80%Median -0.86%Worst year +4.79%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 55%, 2015 to 2025: 91%.

Apr 1 to Apr 11Opens in 175 days
82%lower in 22 years
Average -1.01%Median -0.99%Worst year +3.26%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 82%, 2015 to 2025: 73%.

May 27 to Jul 16Opens in 231 days
77%lower in 22 years
Average -1.25%Median -1.99%Worst year +13.73%

Likely range of the hit rate 56% to 90%. 2004 to 2014: 73%, 2015 to 2025: 73%.

Nov 1 to Dec 21Opens in 24 days
82%higher in 22 years
Average +2.85%Median +2.72%Worst year -12.48%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 82%, 2015 to 2025: 82%.

Why it might happen

  • The Brazilian real is a high-carry currency that reacts to fiscal news, commodity prices and elections.
  • A higher number means a weaker real.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: USD/BRL. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.