Cocoa: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Cocoa has averaged -2.80% and risen in 35% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 5,700.00 on October 6, 2026: -2.85% on the day, -6.02% this year, +6.20% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.91% | -0.21% | 50% | -2.20% | +34.56% | -31.33% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| February | +2.25% | +3.29% | 59% | +0.32% | +35.01% | -32.82% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.65% | +1.12% | 59% | +6.10% | +50.02% | -21.43% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| April | +3.02% | +3.76% | 67% | +4.24% | +24.17% | -11.98% | 27 | strong |
| May | -1.40% | -1.87% | 48% | +0.51% | +12.72% | -28.08% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| June | +2.15% | +1.27% | 59% | -0.65% | +27.50% | -17.17% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.92% | +1.40% | 59% | +1.03% | +23.13% | -12.85% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| August | +2.52% | +1.52% | 56% | +5.47% | +24.23% | -12.71% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.44% | +0.39% | 52% | -5.66% | +16.18% | -20.11% | 27 | no clear pattern |
| October | -2.80% | -2.83% | 35% | -0.85% | +11.67% | -19.74% | 26 | moderate |
| November | +3.42% | +1.06% | 54% | +4.79% | +33.24% | -19.81% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | +2.59% | +2.61% | 58% | +2.53% | +26.63% | -13.46% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Cocoa
- Ivory Coast and Ghana produce most of the world's cocoa; the main crop starts in October.
- Weather, crop disease and farmgate price policy drive supply.
Sell in May for Cocoa
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +17.60% and the May to October half -2.63%. The winter half did better in 72% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on Cocoa
Questions
What is the best month for Cocoa?
Since 2000, November has had the highest average move for Cocoa at +3.42%, rising in 54% of 26 years. April has the highest share of positive years (67%).
What is the worst month for Cocoa?
October has had the weakest average move at -2.80%, rising in 35% of 26 years.
How does Cocoa usually do in October?
Cocoa has averaged -2.80% in October (median -2.83%), rising in 35% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.