S&P 500: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, S&P 500 has averaged +0.55% and risen in 59% of 98 years (1928 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 7,818.93 on October 6, 2026: +0.58% on the day, +14.22% this year, +2.19% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.21% | +1.55% | 63% | +2.06% | +13.18% | -8.57% | 99 | strong |
| February | -0.11% | +0.20% | 52% | -0.59% | +11.37% | -18.44% | 99 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.42% | +1.00% | 61% | -0.99% | +11.70% | -25.04% | 99 | weak |
| April | +1.36% | +0.94% | 66% | +2.12% | +33.85% | -20.25% | 99 | strong |
| May | +0.13% | +1.07% | 61% | +1.82% | +23.12% | -23.95% | 99 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.79% | +0.30% | 57% | +1.74% | +24.70% | -16.46% | 99 | weak |
| July | +1.67% | +1.62% | 61% | +3.00% | +36.12% | -11.52% | 99 | strong |
| August | +0.70% | +0.88% | 59% | +1.20% | +39.14% | -14.58% | 99 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.11% | -0.45% | 44% | -1.37% | +14.40% | -29.94% | 99 | weak |
| October | +0.55% | +1.03% | 59% | +0.66% | +16.30% | -21.76% | 98 | no clear pattern |
| November | +1.01% | +1.63% | 62% | +4.15% | +11.99% | -13.37% | 98 | weak |
| December | +1.27% | +1.48% | 72% | +0.05% | +11.16% | -14.53% | 98 | strong |
What drives S&P 500
- Corporate earnings and forward guidance, reported in four seasons a year (January, April, July, October).
- Federal Reserve policy and the level of real yields, which set the discount rate for equities.
- Fund flows around year end, tax-loss selling, buybacks and the blackout windows before earnings.
Sell in May for S&P 500
From 1929 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +5.20% and the May to October half +2.39%. The winter half did better in 66% of 97 years. Compare all markets.
How S&P 500 reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.20% | -0.18% | -0.08% | 51% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.38% | +0.05% | +0.29% | 64% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.33% | +0.50% | -1.88% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +1.30% | -0.28% | +2.35% | 83% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +0.79% | -0.15% | +0.94% | 78% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.26% | -0.80% | 0.00% | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.76% | -1.39% | +0.71% | 60% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -1.60% | -1.47% | -1.97% | 25% |
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | -0.28% | -0.49% | +1.80% | 80% |
Year by year
Latest insights on S&P 500
A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking
The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.
Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records
The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.
Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets
A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.
Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13
Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.
The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle
2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.
Questions
What is the best month for S&P 500?
Since 1928, July has had the highest average move for S&P 500 at +1.67%, rising in 61% of 99 years. December has the highest share of positive years (72%).
What is the worst month for S&P 500?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.11%, rising in 44% of 99 years.
How does S&P 500 usually do in October?
S&P 500 has averaged +0.55% in October (median +1.03%), rising in 59% of 98 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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