Updated every weekday

Seasonal outlook

As of the close of October 16, 2026, the S&P 500 is +11.89% this year and -2.04% from its record close. 50 of 68 markets we track are above their 200-day average. Over the past month the strongest moves came from Sugar (+16.03%), Ibovespa (+10.72%), Walmart (+10.52%), and the weakest from KOSPI (-15.63%), Palladium (-13.96%), Corn (-11.23%).

Outlook here means what history says for the weeks ahead, never a forecast. Not investment advice.

What history says for the weeks ahead

Months with a moderate or strong pattern

Rest of October: usually higher

• Alphabet+8.69% 73% up
• Apple+6.17% 69% up
• Airbus+4.97% 72% up
• LVMH+4.30% 73% up
• Sugar+3.28% 65% up
• Live cattle+2.79% 68% up

Rest of October: usually lower

• Cocoa-2.80% 35% up

November: usually higher

• Tesla+10.60% 69% up
• Nvidia+9.79% 78% up
• Siemens+5.56% 83% up
• Allianz+4.24% 76% up
• Walmart+3.67% 72% up
• Eli Lilly+3.09% 70% up

November: usually lower

• Gasoline (RBOB)-2.73% 28% up
• Shell-0.17% 28% up

Seasonal windows opening in the next 30 days

DAXOct 18 to Dec 7Higher93%of 30 yrs+4.58%Opens todayKOSPIOct 24 to Nov 8Higher76%of 29 yrs+2.05%Opens in 6 daysEli LillyOct 26 to Dec 30Higher87%of 30 yrs+7.11%Opens in 8 daysDow JonesOct 28 to Nov 7Higher83%of 30 yrs+1.90%Opens in 10 daysCAC 40Oct 28 to Nov 7Higher77%of 30 yrs+1.51%Opens in 10 daysIbovespaOct 30 to Dec 9Higher73%of 30 yrs+5.22%Opens in 12 daysWheatOct 30 to Nov 19Lower76%of 25 yrs-1.98%Opens in 12 daysUSD/BRLNov 1 to Dec 21Higher82%of 22 yrs+2.85%Opens in 14 days

Ahead of or behind the season

BIST 100Sep to Oct, usually higher-18.23%this year+4.76%usual full periodBehindLVMHSep to Oct, usually higher-12.42%this year+2.10%usual full periodBehindASMLOct 10 to Nov 29, usually higher-7.77%this year+11.79%usual full periodBehindWalmartSep to Nov, usually higher+13.29%this year+7.34%usual full periodAheadExxon MobilSep 6 to Dec 5, usually higher+12.23%this year+4.98%usual full periodAheadShellOctober, usually higher+10.32%this year+2.09%usual full periodAhead

Where markets stand

Close of October 16, 2026, the context for the seasonal record

Market	1 week	1 month	This year	From 52-week high	Versus 200-day
S&P 500	-1.95%	+1.43%	+11.89%	-2.04%	+5.34%
Nasdaq Composite	-4.48%	+0.62%	+12.47%	-5.29%	+4.90%
DAX	+2.13%	+0.33%	+4.62%	-3.57%	+3.00%
Euro Stoxx 50	+0.50%	-0.99%	+7.04%	-5.30%	+1.71%
Gold	-0.83%	-4.70%	-3.69%	-21.38%	-7.92%
Brent crude oil	+4.91%	+3.81%	+80.54%	-7.17%	+22.19%
Bitcoin	-1.85%	+6.52%	-7.00%	-28.91%	+12.37%
US 10-year Treasury yield	-12 bp	+10 bp	+92 bp	-21 bp
EUR/USD	0.00%	-2.81%	-4.55%	-6.69%	-3.22%
US dollar index (DXY)	-0.36%	+1.53%	+3.62%	-0.72%	+2.38%

Leaders and laggards

Past month and this year, every market we track

Strongest past month

• Sugar+16.03%
• Ibovespa+10.72%
• Walmart+10.52%
• Eli Lilly+10.48%
• Shell+10.11%
• Exxon Mobil+9.59%

Weakest past month

• KOSPI-15.63%
• Palladium-13.96%
• Corn-11.23%
• Silver-10.86%
• BIST 100-10.68%
• Heating oil (ULSD)-9.97%

Strongest this year

• Heating oil (ULSD)+116.39%
• Gasoline (RBOB)+92.39%
• Brent crude oil+80.54%
• WTI crude oil+72.45%
• Natural gas (Henry Hub)+67.95%
• ASML+61.09%

Weakest this year

• LVMH-37.45%
• Palladium-31.34%
• XRP-29.75%
• Tesla-21.12%
• Platinum-19.73%
• Ether-19.12%

What people are reading about

English Wikipedia page views, daily average over the last week

Amazon 8,047/day, +3%Microsoft 6,013/day, -11%Apple 5,624/day, -29%Nvidia 5,118/day, -7%Meta 4,046/day, +14%Bitcoin 3,772/day, +21%Tesla 3,328/day, +19%Dow Jones 2,978/day, +6%Alphabet 2,751/day, -6%US dollar 2,379/day, -3%S&P 500 2,061/day, +7%Euro 1,948/day, -10%

Rising fastest this week: Bitcoin (+21%), Tesla (+19%), DAX (+15%), Meta (+14%), S&P 500 (+7%).

Coming up

Scheduled decisions and releases

• Oct 25Brazil presidential runoff
• Oct 27FOMC meeting begins (decision October 28)
• Oct 28Federal Open Market Committee meeting
• Nov 1OPEC+ core group meeting
• Nov 3US midterm elections
• Nov 5Bank of England decision
• Dec 8FOMC meeting begins (decision and projections December 9)

Full calendar

Latest commentary

• Week ahead: chip rout, US CPI and oil riskOct 14
• KOSPI sinks far below its usual October path, with November nextOct 16
• Bitcoin's strongest month is under strain after a drop to $80,154Oct 16
• Gold meets a quiet October season as rate hike bets riseOct 16
• Is October Bitcoin's Best Month? What the Data SaysOct 16
• Why Brent Crude Is Surging and What History SaysOct 13

Questions people ask now

Will the stock market crash?What history saysHow do stocks do in a recession?What history saysGold price outlookWhat history saysBitcoin price outlookWhat history saysOil price outlookWhat history saysS&P 500 outlookWhat history says

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.