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Question

What is the best month for Swiss Market Index?

Short answer

Since 1991, November has been the strongest month for Swiss Market Index, averaging +1.82% and rising in 77% of 35 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.86%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. December comes second at +1.43%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Swiss Market Index, 1990 to 2026

+1.8%+0.9%-0.9%-1.8%Jan: average +0.48%, up in 53% of 36 yearsJanFeb: average +0.60%, up in 64% of 36 yearsFebMar: average +0.64%, up in 58% of 36 yearsMarApr: average +1.22%, up in 64% of 36 yearsAprMay: average +0.85%, up in 67% of 36 yearsMayJun: average -0.32%, up in 47% of 36 yearsJunJul: average +1.02%, up in 67% of 36 yearsJulAug: average -0.59%, up in 50% of 36 yearsAugSep: average -0.86%, up in 50% of 36 yearsSepOct: average +1.26%, up in 69% of 35 yearsOctNov: average +1.82%, up in 77% of 35 yearsNovDec: average +1.43%, up in 72% of 36 yearsDec
Swiss Market Index: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+1.82%+1.51%77%strong
2December+1.43%+1.94%72%strong
3October+1.26%+1.40%69%strong
4April+1.22%+1.42%64%strong
5July+1.02%+1.26%67%moderate
6May+0.85%+1.85%67%moderate
7March+0.64%+1.11%58%no clear pattern
8February+0.60%+1.47%64%weak
9January+0.48%+0.33%53%no clear pattern
10June-0.32%-0.05%47%no clear pattern
11August-0.59%+0.25%50%no clear pattern
12September-0.86%-0.29%50%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 123 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +1.01%Median +1.27%Worst year -3.27%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Mar 26 to Apr 10Opens in 169 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +1.23%Median +1.49%Worst year -13.19%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 73%. Weaker in recent years.

Jun 30 to Jul 10Opens in 265 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +0.71%Median +0.85%Worst year -4.78%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Oct 10 to Dec 29Opens in 2 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +4.15%Median +3.26%Worst year -7.60%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • Defensive heavyweights in pharma and consumer staples dominate the index.
  • A strong franc in risk-off periods weighs on reported earnings in francs.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Swiss Market Index. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.