USD/TRY: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, USD/TRY has averaged +0.88% and risen in 62% of 21 years (2005 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as weak.
Last close 49.14 on October 6, 2026: -0.03% on the day, +14.41% this year, +0.27% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New 52-week high | Oct 5 | 98 | +2.47% | 77% |
| RSI above 70 | Oct 6 | 67 | +2.77% | 72% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.40% | +0.56% | 62% | +1.41% | +9.30% | -6.75% | 21 | moderate |
| February | +0.88% | +1.10% | 68% | +1.20% | +4.16% | -4.48% | 22 | strong |
| March | +2.40% | +1.85% | 73% | +4.42% | +13.68% | -5.19% | 22 | strong |
| April | -0.05% | -0.80% | 41% | +1.62% | +6.77% | -4.82% | 22 | no clear pattern |
| May | +2.79% | +1.72% | 55% | +3.20% | +19.19% | -4.24% | 22 | moderate |
| June | +1.74% | +1.10% | 73% | +3.51% | +26.33% | -2.38% | 22 | moderate |
| July | +0.17% | +0.31% | 59% | +1.67% | +7.92% | -5.85% | 22 | no clear pattern |
| August | +3.30% | +1.50% | 77% | +5.12% | +37.92% | -2.19% | 22 | strong |
| September | +1.08% | +1.36% | 73% | +1.02% | +7.37% | -10.82% | 22 | moderate |
| October | +0.88% | +0.41% | 62% | +1.95% | +20.55% | -8.74% | 21 | weak |
| November | +2.85% | +1.01% | 76% | +4.23% | +33.32% | -5.79% | 21 | strong |
| December | +0.73% | +1.10% | 62% | +0.83% | +5.34% | -5.67% | 21 | weak |
What drives USD/TRY
- Turkish inflation, the central bank's policy rate and reserve position.
- A managed depreciation path means the trend dominates seasonality.
Sell in May for USD/TRY
From 2006 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.62% and the May to October half +10.87%. The winter half did better in 55% of 20 years. Compare all markets.
How USD/TRY reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | +0.41% | +1.68% | +2.81% | 100% |
Year by year
Latest insights on USD/TRY
Questions
What is the best month for USD/TRY?
Since 2005, August has had the highest average move for USD/TRY at +3.30%, rising in 77% of 22 years. August has the highest share of positive years (77%).
What is the worst month for USD/TRY?
April has had the weakest average move at -0.05%, rising in 41% of 22 years.
How does USD/TRY usually do in October?
USD/TRY has averaged +0.88% in October (median +0.41%), rising in 62% of 21 years. We rate the pattern as weak.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.