Nasdaq Composite: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Nasdaq Composite has averaged +0.77% and risen in 55% of 55 years (1971 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 27,599.79 on October 6, 2026: +0.45% on the day, +18.75% this year, +2.75% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New 52-week high | Oct 6 | 217 | +1.36% | 69% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.47% | +2.86% | 67% | +3.01% | +16.65% | -9.89% | 55 | strong |
| February | +0.40% | +0.10% | 51% | -0.59% | +19.19% | -22.39% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.56% | +1.34% | 63% | -0.96% | +10.94% | -17.10% | 56 | weak |
| April | +1.58% | +1.67% | 66% | +2.64% | +15.45% | -15.57% | 56 | moderate |
| May | +1.38% | +2.85% | 63% | +3.36% | +11.07% | -11.91% | 56 | moderate |
| June | +1.02% | +1.12% | 57% | +2.65% | +16.62% | -9.44% | 56 | weak |
| July | +0.85% | +1.12% | 57% | +3.18% | +12.35% | -9.22% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| August | +0.40% | +1.56% | 57% | +1.73% | +11.66% | -19.93% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.72% | +0.35% | 54% | -1.59% | +12.98% | -16.98% | 56 | no clear pattern |
| October | +0.77% | +2.16% | 55% | +0.60% | +17.17% | -27.23% | 55 | no clear pattern |
| November | +2.06% | +2.35% | 71% | +4.14% | +14.22% | -22.90% | 55 | strong |
| December | +1.49% | +0.58% | 60% | -0.13% | +21.98% | -9.69% | 55 | moderate |
What drives Nasdaq Composite
- Mega-cap technology earnings, AI capital spending and semiconductor demand.
- Long-duration growth stocks are more sensitive to changes in bond yields than the broad market.
- Product cycles and developer conferences cluster in spring and early autumn.
Sell in May for Nasdaq Composite
From 1972 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +8.81% and the May to October half +3.77%. The winter half did better in 63% of 54 years. Compare all markets.
How Nasdaq Composite reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 52 | +0.37% | +0.20% | +0.35% | 57% |
| Fed cuts | 39 | +0.69% | +0.72% | +1.24% | 56% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 7 | +0.69% | +1.53% | -2.49% | 33% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 6 | +2.71% | +0.07% | +5.13% | 67% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 18 | +1.28% | +0.82% | +2.23% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 31 | +0.47% | -0.61% | +0.23% | 57% |
| ECB cuts | 30 | -0.89% | -1.64% | +1.18% | 57% |
| Tariff escalation headlines | 8 | -1.82% | -1.47% | -2.40% | 38% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Nasdaq Composite
Questions
What is the best month for Nasdaq Composite?
Since 1971, January has had the highest average move for Nasdaq Composite at +2.47%, rising in 67% of 55 years. November has the highest share of positive years (71%).
What is the worst month for Nasdaq Composite?
September has had the weakest average move at -0.72%, rising in 54% of 56 years.
How does Nasdaq Composite usually do in October?
Nasdaq Composite has averaged +0.77% in October (median +2.16%), rising in 55% of 55 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.