Seasonality
Seasonal windows
Instead of whole months, these are the exact date ranges where a market moved the same way in most of the last 30 years.
What countsHeld in at least 75% of years, in both halves of the history, with 10 years of data or more.
The catchWe tested thousands of date ranges, so a few will look good by chance. Read the yearly squares, not just the hit rate.
Not a tradeWindows ignore costs and news. They show what usually happened, not what will.
Open now (32)
Windows that have started and still have days left
AllianzSep 14 to Dec 3Higher93%of 29 yrs+7.49%Open now, 57 days leftSugarSep 20 to Oct 15Higher92%of 25 yrs+7.01%Open now, 8 days leftBitcoinSep 8 to Oct 28Higher91%of 11 yrs+17.59%Open now, 21 days leftS&P 500Sep 6 to Dec 5Higher90%of 30 yrs+3.85%Open now, 59 days leftUSD/TRYAug 9 to Oct 23Higher90%of 20 yrs+5.06%Open now, 16 days leftEuro Stoxx 50Oct 4 to Dec 18Higher89%of 18 yrs+2.80%Open now, 72 days leftWheatSep 4 to Oct 29Higher88%of 25 yrs+4.42%Open now, 22 days leftLive cattleAug 9 to Nov 2Higher88%of 24 yrs+5.74%Open now, 26 days leftBIST 100Aug 15 to Nov 3Higher86%of 28 yrs+6.89%Open now, 27 days leftBerkshireSep 30 to Nov 29Higher86%of 29 yrs+4.10%Open now, 53 days leftGBP/USDSep 18 to Oct 8Lower86%of 22 yrs-1.39%Open now, 1 days leftLVMHSep 24 to Dec 8Higher84%of 25 yrs+8.16%Open now, 62 days leftNat gasAug 27 to Oct 31Higher84%of 25 yrs+19.23%Open now, 24 days leftNasdaqSep 30 to Dec 9Higher83%of 30 yrs+6.21%Open now, 63 days leftCAC 40Sep 14 to Dec 8Higher83%of 30 yrs+2.45%Open now, 62 days leftFTSE 100Sep 12 to Dec 1Higher83%of 30 yrs+1.48%Open now, 55 days leftMicrosoftOct 4 to Dec 13Higher83%of 30 yrs+8.08%Open now, 67 days leftJPMorgan ChaseSep 10 to Dec 9Higher83%of 30 yrs+7.34%Open now, 63 days leftWalmartAug 31 to Nov 9Higher83%of 30 yrs+5.22%Open now, 33 days leftUS 10YSep 30 to Oct 10Higher83%of 30 yrs+8 bpOpen now, 3 days leftFTSE MIBOct 2 to Dec 6Higher82%of 28 yrs+4.00%Open now, 60 days leftEUR/USDSep 20 to Oct 10Lower82%of 22 yrs-0.76%Open now, 3 days leftAlphabetAug 19 to Nov 2Higher81%of 21 yrs+9.70%Open now, 26 days leftExxon MobilAug 3 to Oct 17Higher80%of 30 yrs+2.64%Open now, 10 days leftGasoline (RBOB)Sep 28 to Nov 17Lower80%of 25 yrs-7.74%Open now, 41 days leftSilverOct 2 to Oct 27Higher80%of 25 yrs+1.23%Open now, 20 days leftAmazonSep 28 to Oct 23Higher79%of 28 yrs+3.89%Open now, 16 days leftIBEX 35Oct 2 to Dec 11Higher77%of 30 yrs+4.86%Open now, 65 days leftHang SengSep 26 to Nov 15Higher77%of 30 yrs+3.48%Open now, 39 days leftIbovespaSep 30 to Nov 24Higher77%of 30 yrs+4.78%Open now, 48 days leftEli LillyAug 11 to Oct 10Higher77%of 30 yrs+4.73%Open now, 3 days leftTotalEnergiesOct 4 to Dec 23Higher76%of 25 yrs+4.72%Open now, 77 days left
Opening in the next 30 days (27)
AppleOct 8 to Dec 12Higher83%of 30 yrs+9.68%Opens in 1 dayRussell 2000Oct 10 to Dec 29Higher83%of 30 yrs+6.72%Opens in 3 daysSMIOct 10 to Dec 29Higher87%of 30 yrs+4.15%Opens in 3 daysAirbusOct 10 to Nov 14Higher88%of 24 yrs+7.08%Opens in 3 daysHeating oilOct 12 to Nov 1Lower76%of 25 yrs-2.50%Opens in 5 daysLean hogsOct 12 to Nov 21Lower92%of 25 yrs-7.90%Opens in 5 daysTeslaOct 14 to Dec 28Higher80%of 15 yrs+16.95%Opens in 7 daysDAXOct 18 to Dec 7Higher93%of 30 yrs+4.58%Opens in 11 daysASMLOct 18 to Dec 12Higher85%of 27 yrs+12.10%Opens in 11 daysDow JonesOct 20 to Dec 9Higher93%of 30 yrs+4.02%Opens in 13 daysSiemensOct 20 to Dec 14Higher90%of 29 yrs+8.58%Opens in 13 daysNvidiaOct 24 to Nov 8Higher96%of 26 yrs+8.92%Opens in 17 daysNestléOct 24 to Nov 18Higher77%of 30 yrs+1.86%Opens in 17 daysEUR/USDOct 24 to Nov 13Lower77%of 22 yrs-0.76%Opens in 17 daysSoybeansOct 26 to Dec 20Higher84%of 25 yrs+2.84%Opens in 19 daysNikkei 225Oct 28 to Dec 7Higher80%of 30 yrs+3.91%Opens in 21 daysKOSPIOct 30 to Dec 9Higher76%of 29 yrs+4.87%Opens in 23 daysExxon MobilOct 30 to Dec 4Higher77%of 30 yrs+3.08%Opens in 23 daysCocoaOct 30 to Dec 14Higher84%of 25 yrs+6.93%Opens in 23 daysEli LillyNov 1 to Dec 31Higher90%of 30 yrs+6.88%Opens in 25 daysNovo NordiskNov 1 to Dec 26Higher83%of 24 yrs+20.88%Opens in 25 daysCornNov 1 to Nov 21Lower76%of 25 yrs-1.25%Opens in 25 daysUSD/BRLNov 1 to Dec 21Higher82%of 22 yrs+2.85%Opens in 25 daysAmazonNov 3 to Nov 28Higher82%of 28 yrs+9.05%Opens in 27 daysMetaNov 3 to Dec 18Higher85%of 13 yrs+5.99%Opens in 27 daysShellNov 5 to Nov 30Lower83%of 29 yrs-1.02%Opens in 29 daysWheatNov 5 to Nov 15Lower84%of 25 yrs-1.21%Opens in 29 days
Later this year, most reliable first
NestléFeb 14 to May 10Higher100%of 30 yrs+7.52%Opens in 130 daysGasoline (RBOB)Jan 25 to Mar 6Higher100%of 25 yrs+16.82%Opens in 110 daysLean hogsJul 26 to Aug 30Lower100%of 25 yrs-14.94%Opens in 292 daysGasoline (RBOB)Aug 29 to Sep 13Lower96%of 25 yrs-7.91%Opens in 326 daysCornDec 7 to Dec 17Higher96%of 25 yrs+4.58%Opens in 61 daysLive cattleDec 11 to Dec 31Higher96%of 24 yrs+3.10%Opens in 65 daysLean hogsApr 7 to Jul 6Higher96%of 25 yrs+17.32%Opens in 182 daysUSD/TRYFeb 18 to Mar 10Higher95%of 20 yrs+2.65%Opens in 134 daysBrentAug 15 to Aug 30Higher94%of 18 yrs+2.43%Opens in 312 daysTeslaMay 11 to Jul 15Higher93%of 15 yrs+21.67%Opens in 216 daysTeslaSep 4 to Sep 19Higher93%of 15 yrs+7.86%Opens in 332 daysMetaApr 21 to Jul 10Higher92%of 13 yrs+15.50%Opens in 196 daysLive cattleApr 29 to May 24Lower92%of 24 yrs-4.24%Opens in 204 daysLean hogsDec 13 to Dec 23Higher92%of 25 yrs+6.36%Opens in 67 daysBitcoinJan 23 to Feb 17Higher91%of 11 yrs+13.54%Opens in 108 daysBitcoinJun 18 to Jul 28Higher91%of 11 yrs+11.04%Opens in 254 daysAlphabetMay 11 to Jul 30Higher90%of 21 yrs+8.31%Opens in 216 daysUS 10YJun 16 to Sep 4Lower90%of 30 yrs-18 bpOpens in 252 daysEuro Stoxx 50Feb 10 to Feb 20Higher89%of 18 yrs+1.05%Opens in 126 daysSoybeansJul 10 to Aug 4Lower88%of 25 yrs-5.69%Opens in 276 daysSugarFeb 24 to Mar 26Lower88%of 25 yrs-6.19%Opens in 140 daysDow JonesJun 30 to Jul 20Higher87%of 30 yrs+1.47%Opens in 266 daysCAC 40Feb 24 to Apr 30Higher87%of 30 yrs+3.48%Opens in 140 daysFTSE 100Mar 26 to Apr 10Higher87%of 30 yrs+1.52%Opens in 170 daysFTSE 100Dec 15 to Dec 30Higher87%of 30 yrs+2.02%Opens in 69 daysAppleJun 12 to Sep 5Higher87%of 30 yrs+14.80%Opens in 248 daysMicrosoftJun 12 to Jul 17Higher87%of 30 yrs+6.15%Opens in 248 daysExxon MobilFeb 8 to Apr 24Higher87%of 30 yrs+4.16%Opens in 124 daysUS 2YJun 22 to Aug 1Lower87%of 30 yrs-8 bpOpens in 258 daysAllianzDec 15 to Dec 25Higher86%of 29 yrs+2.34%Opens in 69 days
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.