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Question

What is the best month for Tesla?

Short answer

Since 2010, November has been the strongest month for Tesla, averaging +10.60% and rising in 69% of 16 years. March has been the weakest, at -1.23%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the March pattern as no clear pattern. June comes second at +8.24%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Tesla, 2010 to 2026

+10.6%+5.3%-5.3%-10.6%Jan: average +5.45%, up in 56% of 16 yearsJanFeb: average +0.97%, up in 44% of 16 yearsFebMar: average -1.23%, up in 44% of 16 yearsMarApr: average +5.94%, up in 63% of 16 yearsAprMay: average +6.64%, up in 50% of 16 yearsMayJun: average +8.24%, up in 69% of 16 yearsJunJul: average +2.17%, up in 47% of 17 yearsJulAug: average +6.70%, up in 53% of 17 yearsAugSep: average +1.96%, up in 41% of 17 yearsSepOct: average +2.48%, up in 38% of 16 yearsOctNov: average +10.60%, up in 69% of 16 yearsNovDec: average +1.03%, up in 63% of 16 yearsDec
Tesla: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+10.60%+4.34%69%strong
2June+8.24%+7.84%69%strong
3August+6.70%+1.18%53%no clear pattern
4May+6.64%+3.37%50%no clear pattern
5April+5.94%+4.52%63%weak
6January+5.45%+0.99%56%no clear pattern
7October+2.48%-2.95%38%no clear pattern
8July+2.17%-0.79%47%no clear pattern
9September+1.96%-1.41%41%no clear pattern
10December+1.03%+2.15%63%no clear pattern
11February+0.97%-0.45%44%no clear pattern
12March-1.23%-4.14%44%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 18 to Apr 2Opens in 161 days
80%higher in 15 years
Average +7.71%Median +6.42%Worst year -21.43%

Likely range of the hit rate 55% to 93%. 2011 to 2017: 71%, 2018 to 2025: 88%.

May 11 to Jul 15Opens in 215 days
93%higher in 15 years
Average +21.67%Median +5.92%Worst year -1.88%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 99%. 2011 to 2017: 100%, 2018 to 2025: 88%. Weaker in recent years.

Sep 4 to Sep 19Opens in 331 days
93%higher in 15 years
Average +7.86%Median +7.88%Worst year -9.34%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 99%. 2011 to 2017: 86%, 2018 to 2025: 100%.

Oct 14 to Dec 28Opens in 6 days
80%higher in 15 years
Average +16.95%Median +9.63%Worst year -45.02%

Likely range of the hit rate 55% to 93%. 2011 to 2017: 71%, 2018 to 2025: 88%.

Why it might happen

  • Quarterly delivery numbers, published a few days after each quarter ends, often move the stock before earnings.
  • EV pricing, subsidies and tariffs, plus expectations for autonomy and robotics.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Tesla. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.