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Question

What is the best month for Coffee (Arabica)?

Short answer

Since 2000, November has been the strongest month for Coffee (Arabica), averaging +3.84% and rising in 58% of 26 years. May has been the weakest, at -1.29%.

We rate the November pattern as weak and the May pattern as weak. January comes second at +1.68%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Coffee (Arabica), 2000 to 2026

+3.8%+1.9%-1.9%-3.8%Jan: average +1.68%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +0.50%, up in 41% of 27 yearsFebMar: average -0.54%, up in 37% of 27 yearsMarApr: average +1.48%, up in 48% of 27 yearsAprMay: average -1.29%, up in 37% of 27 yearsMayJun: average -0.50%, up in 48% of 27 yearsJunJul: average +1.43%, up in 56% of 27 yearsJulAug: average +1.34%, up in 48% of 27 yearsAugSep: average +0.46%, up in 59% of 27 yearsSepOct: average -1.10%, up in 42% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +3.84%, up in 58% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +1.61%, up in 46% of 26 yearsDec
Coffee (Arabica): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+3.84%+0.98%58%weak
2January+1.68%+1.67%58%no clear pattern
3December+1.61%-0.16%46%no clear pattern
4April+1.48%-0.65%48%no clear pattern
5July+1.43%+0.65%56%no clear pattern
6August+1.34%-0.21%48%no clear pattern
7February+0.50%-0.66%41%no clear pattern
8September+0.46%+1.43%59%no clear pattern
9June-0.50%-0.80%48%no clear pattern
10March-0.54%-1.73%37%weak
11October-1.10%-1.58%42%no clear pattern
12May-1.29%-2.41%37%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 28 to Mar 15Opens in 144 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -1.00%Median -2.77%Worst year +22.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Jun 4 to Jun 19Opens in 240 days
84%lower in 25 years
Average -3.55%Median -4.64%Worst year +19.81%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Dec 13 to Dec 28Opens in 67 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +2.20%Median +2.18%Worst year -11.82%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Brazil's harvest from May to September and frost risk in the southern winter.
  • Vietnam's robusta harvest and certified stock levels.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Coffee (Arabica). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.