EUR/USD: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, EUR/USD has averaged -0.28% and risen in 55% of 22 years (2004 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as no clear pattern.
Last close 1.1217 on October 6, 2026: -0.33% on the day, -4.51% this year, -1.09% so far in October.
Technicals
| Signal now | Date | Past cases | Avg next 20 sessions | Higher after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New 52-week low | Oct 6 | 39 | -0.28% | 54% |
| RSI below 30 | Oct 6 | 42 | -0.47% | 36% |
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.57% | -0.09% | 48% | +0.26% | +3.92% | -8.18% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| February | -0.25% | -0.12% | 39% | -0.69% | +2.58% | -3.08% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.29% | +0.30% | 52% | +0.04% | +4.48% | -3.59% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| April | +0.62% | +0.19% | 52% | +0.36% | +5.22% | -5.89% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| May | -0.76% | -0.48% | 35% | +0.16% | +6.97% | -7.60% | 23 | weak |
| June | +0.15% | -0.06% | 48% | +0.10% | +3.07% | -3.03% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| July | +0.32% | -0.07% | 48% | +0.59% | +6.61% | -2.54% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| August | +0.06% | +0.39% | 57% | +0.23% | +2.51% | -5.91% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| September | -0.27% | -0.94% | 43% | -1.16% | +7.60% | -5.87% | 23 | no clear pattern |
| October | -0.28% | +0.44% | 55% | -0.59% | +4.08% | -9.89% | 22 | no clear pattern |
| November | -0.23% | +0.03% | 50% | +0.15% | +3.96% | -5.77% | 22 | no clear pattern |
| December | +0.86% | +0.81% | 68% | +0.91% | +10.10% | -4.73% | 22 | moderate |
What drives EUR/USD
- The interest-rate gap between the ECB and the Fed and relative growth.
- Energy prices matter because the euro area imports most of its energy.
Sell in May for EUR/USD
From 2005 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +0.92% and the May to October half -0.97%. The winter half did better in 52% of 21 years. Compare all markets.
How EUR/USD reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikes | 38 | +0.09% | -0.11% | +0.02% | 43% |
| Fed cuts | 20 | +0.68% | -0.11% | -0.08% | 55% |
| First Fed hike of a cycle | 4 | +0.23% | +0.12% | -0.42% | 0% |
| First Fed cut of a cycle | 3 | +0.30% | +0.75% | +0.04% | 33% |
| Fed cuts of 50 bp or more | 9 | +1.51% | +0.33% | -0.18% | 67% |
| ECB hikes | 24 | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.21% | 52% |
| ECB cuts | 22 | -0.05% | +0.20% | -0.15% | 41% |
Year by year
Latest insights on EUR/USD
Questions
What is the best month for EUR/USD?
Since 2004, December has had the highest average move for EUR/USD at +0.86%, rising in 68% of 22 years. December has the highest share of positive years (68%).
What is the worst month for EUR/USD?
May has had the weakest average move at -0.76%, rising in 35% of 23 years.
How does EUR/USD usually do in October?
EUR/USD has averaged -0.28% in October (median +0.44%), rising in 55% of 22 years. We rate the pattern as no clear pattern.
Alerts for EUR/USD
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.