Natural gas (Henry Hub): seasonality, event history and insights
In October, Natural gas (Henry Hub) has averaged +7.37% and risen in 65% of 26 years (2000 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as strong.
Last close 3.1140 on October 6, 2026: +1.57% on the day, -15.52% this year, +2.91% so far in October.
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -5.16% | -5.57% | 38% | -5.80% | +30.67% | -42.20% | 26 | moderate |
| February | -2.09% | -4.87% | 42% | -4.96% | +44.53% | -34.34% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| March | +1.45% | +1.67% | 54% | +1.56% | +37.79% | -37.54% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| April | +3.76% | +5.31% | 69% | +5.85% | +28.39% | -19.25% | 26 | strong |
| May | +2.55% | +1.40% | 54% | +5.16% | +29.93% | -16.63% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| June | +0.19% | -0.70% | 42% | -0.07% | +27.80% | -33.41% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| July | -1.13% | -4.42% | 31% | -0.82% | +51.71% | -31.71% | 26 | moderate |
| August | +0.48% | +1.36% | 58% | +9.78% | +46.19% | -27.79% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| September | +8.58% | +2.09% | 67% | +6.48% | +62.61% | -25.87% | 27 | strong |
| October | +7.37% | +4.17% | 65% | +8.05% | +46.66% | -13.46% | 26 | strong |
| November | +2.43% | +0.86% | 54% | +4.26% | +46.22% | -21.62% | 26 | no clear pattern |
| December | -4.99% | -5.37% | 38% | -12.35% | +48.56% | -36.25% | 26 | no clear pattern |
What drives Natural gas (Henry Hub)
- US heating demand in winter and power-burn demand in summer heat waves create a two-peak demand year.
- Storage injections run from April to October; the market prices winter risk into autumn.
- LNG export capacity links US prices to Europe and Asia.
Sell in May for Natural gas (Henry Hub)
From 2001 to 2025, the November to April half averaged -6.21% and the May to October half +17.40%. The winter half did better in 36% of 25 years. Compare all markets.
How Natural gas (Henry Hub) reacted to events
Average move from the close before each event. Day 1 is the close on the event day.
| Event | Cases | Day 1 | Day 5 | Day 20 | Up after 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil supply cuts (OPEC+ and disruptions) | 5 | -0.17% | +0.45% | -0.68% | 60% |
Year by year
Latest insights on Natural gas (Henry Hub)
Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted
October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.
Questions
What is the best month for Natural gas (Henry Hub)?
Since 2000, September has had the highest average move for Natural gas (Henry Hub) at +8.58%, rising in 67% of 27 years. April has the highest share of positive years (69%).
What is the worst month for Natural gas (Henry Hub)?
January has had the weakest average move at -5.16%, rising in 38% of 26 years.
How does Natural gas (Henry Hub) usually do in October?
Natural gas (Henry Hub) has averaged +7.37% in October (median +4.17%), rising in 65% of 26 years. We rate the pattern as strong.
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