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Question

What is the best month for Allianz?

Short answer

Since 1997, November has been the strongest month for Allianz, averaging +4.24% and rising in 76% of 29 years. August has been the weakest, at -2.05%.

We rate the November pattern as strong and the August pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +3.38%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Allianz, 1997 to 2026

+4.2%+2.1%-2.1%-4.2%Jan: average +0.31%, up in 53% of 30 yearsJanFeb: average -0.08%, up in 60% of 30 yearsFebMar: average +0.50%, up in 60% of 30 yearsMarApr: average +3.38%, up in 57% of 30 yearsAprMay: average -0.87%, up in 43% of 30 yearsMayJun: average +0.40%, up in 57% of 30 yearsJunJul: average +1.84%, up in 60% of 30 yearsJulAug: average -2.05%, up in 47% of 30 yearsAugSep: average -1.03%, up in 53% of 30 yearsSepOct: average +2.72%, up in 66% of 29 yearsOctNov: average +4.24%, up in 76% of 29 yearsNovDec: average +2.61%, up in 76% of 29 yearsDec
Allianz: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1November+4.24%+4.39%76%strong
2April+3.38%+2.58%57%weak
3October+2.72%+4.89%66%weak
4December+2.61%+3.60%76%strong
5July+1.84%+1.44%60%weak
6March+0.50%+1.97%60%weak
7June+0.40%+0.33%57%no clear pattern
8January+0.31%+0.38%53%no clear pattern
9February-0.08%+2.31%60%no clear pattern
10May-0.87%-0.81%43%no clear pattern
11September-1.03%+1.50%53%no clear pattern
12August-2.05%-0.76%47%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 24 to May 5Opens in 139 days
79%higher in 29 years
Average +5.13%Median +3.92%Worst year -26.93%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1997 to 2010: 79%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Sep 14 to Dec 3Open now, 56 days left
93%higher in 29 years
Average +7.49%Median +8.03%Worst year -42.34%

Likely range of the hit rate 78% to 98%. 1997 to 2010: 86%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Dec 15 to Dec 25Opens in 68 days
86%higher in 29 years
Average +2.34%Median +1.68%Worst year -4.59%

Likely range of the hit rate 69% to 94%. 1997 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 80%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Insurance pricing, catastrophe losses (the Atlantic hurricane season runs June to November) and investment income.
  • Higher yields lift investment returns over time.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Allianz. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.