FTSE MIB: seasonality, event history and insights
In October, FTSE MIB has averaged +1.56% and risen in 71% of 28 years (1998 to 2025). We rate the October pattern as moderate.
Last close 51,261.00 on October 6, 2026: +0.87% on the day, +14.05% this year, -0.22% so far in October.
Technicals
Month by month
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Last 10 years | Best | Worst | Years | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.38% | +1.39% | 62% | +2.73% | +12.90% | -12.89% | 29 | weak |
| February | +0.61% | +1.83% | 62% | +1.69% | +16.92% | -14.79% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| March | +0.67% | +0.74% | 52% | -0.80% | +21.03% | -22.44% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| April | +1.80% | +0.42% | 55% | +1.37% | +20.80% | -8.69% | 29 | weak |
| May | -1.26% | -0.71% | 48% | -0.11% | +6.60% | -11.77% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| June | -1.51% | -1.08% | 28% | +0.59% | +10.87% | -13.10% | 29 | moderate |
| July | +1.02% | +1.04% | 62% | +2.35% | +9.84% | -9.95% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| August | -0.73% | +0.57% | 55% | -0.38% | +8.96% | -15.57% | 29 | no clear pattern |
| September | -1.85% | -0.74% | 41% | -0.19% | +4.73% | -16.73% | 29 | weak |
| October | +1.56% | +2.88% | 71% | +0.79% | +11.00% | -16.31% | 28 | moderate |
| November | +1.88% | +1.20% | 61% | +3.29% | +22.95% | -10.93% | 28 | moderate |
| December | +1.38% | +1.21% | 57% | +1.90% | +17.26% | -9.30% | 28 | no clear pattern |
What drives FTSE MIB
- Italy's benchmark, with banks the largest sector, making it highly sensitive to bond spreads and rates.
- Italian budget and political headlines move the BTP-Bund spread and with it the index.
Sell in May for FTSE MIB
From 1999 to 2025, the November to April half averaged +6.58% and the May to October half -2.75%. The winter half did better in 67% of 27 years. Compare all markets.
Year by year
Latest insights on FTSE MIB
Questions
What is the best month for FTSE MIB?
Since 1998, November has had the highest average move for FTSE MIB at +1.88%, rising in 61% of 28 years. October has the highest share of positive years (71%).
What is the worst month for FTSE MIB?
September has had the weakest average move at -1.85%, rising in 41% of 29 years.
How does FTSE MIB usually do in October?
FTSE MIB has averaged +1.56% in October (median +2.88%), rising in 71% of 28 years. We rate the pattern as moderate.
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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.