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Question

What is the best month for Cotton?

Short answer

Since 2000, December has been the strongest month for Cotton, averaging +3.70% and rising in 69% of 26 years. May has been the weakest, at -2.21%.

We rate the December pattern as strong and the May pattern as moderate. February comes second at +1.92%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Cotton, 2000 to 2026

+3.7%+1.9%-1.9%-3.7%Jan: average +1.26%, up in 50% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +1.92%, up in 56% of 27 yearsFebMar: average +0.36%, up in 52% of 27 yearsMarApr: average +0.36%, up in 44% of 27 yearsAprMay: average -2.21%, up in 33% of 27 yearsMayJun: average -1.02%, up in 52% of 27 yearsJunJul: average +0.19%, up in 56% of 27 yearsJulAug: average +1.44%, up in 52% of 27 yearsAugSep: average -2.18%, up in 41% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +0.67%, up in 65% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +1.52%, up in 58% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +3.70%, up in 69% of 26 yearsDec
Cotton: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1December+3.70%+3.33%69%strong
2February+1.92%+0.52%56%no clear pattern
3November+1.52%+1.01%58%no clear pattern
4August+1.44%+1.12%52%no clear pattern
5January+1.26%+0.24%50%no clear pattern
6October+0.67%+1.24%65%no clear pattern
7March+0.36%+0.74%52%no clear pattern
8April+0.36%-1.59%44%no clear pattern
9July+0.19%+0.32%56%no clear pattern
10June-1.02%+0.71%52%no clear pattern
11September-2.18%-2.90%41%no clear pattern
12May-2.21%-4.05%33%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 14 to May 28Opens in 157 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -3.88%Median -5.05%Worst year +26.62%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 62%. Weaker in recent years.

Nov 21 to Dec 31Opens in 44 days
84%higher in 25 years
Average +6.32%Median +5.40%Worst year -6.40%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 77%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • US planting and Texas weather, Chinese demand and the apparel cycle.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Cotton. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.